Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction 7/20/26 MLB Picks Today

The Baltimore Orioles and the Boston Red Sox meet Monday in MLB action from Fenway Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Baltimore Orioles will send out Shane Baz for the start here and Baz is 4-9 with a 4.19 ERA and 99 strikeouts this season. Payton Tolle will start for the Red Sox and is 5-6 with a 3.11 ERA and 87 strikeouts this season.

Baltimore Orioles Recap

The Baltimore Orioles come into this game looking to add on to their 5-2 win over the Houston Astros last time out to sit at 49-51 this season. After this series, the Orioles will head home for a set against the Atlanta Braves.

Orioles Win 7 In A Row

Taylor Ward has 92 hits with 19 doubles and 27 RBIs while Gunnar Henderson has 90 hits with 16 doubles, 17 home runs and 44 RBIs and Pete Alonso has 91 hits with 17 doubles, 21 home runs and 66 RBIs. Adley Rutschman has 62 hits with 19 doubles, 8 home runs and 47 RBIs. Jeremiah Jackson has 52 hits with 10 doubles, 7 home runs and 36 RBIs as well on the year. Samuel Basallo has 68 hits with 9 doubles, 16 home runs and 46 RBIs.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to add on to their 6-1 win over the Rays from Sunday to improve to 50-48 this season. After this series, the Red Sox will take on the Toronto Blue Jays in a series at home.

Red Sox Win Streak Hits 13

Wilyer Abreu leads the Red Sox with 97 hits including 20 doubles, 2 triples, 15 home runs and 49 RBIs while Trevor Story has 34 hits with 7 doubles, 3 homers and 19 RBIs and Marcelo Mayer’s added 45 hits with 10 doubles, 3 home runs and 22 RBIs as well. Jarren Duran has 67 hits with 10 doubles, 13 home runs and 48 RBIs as well this season. Willson Contreras has added 91 hits with 16 doubles, 22 homers and 64 RBIs of his own on the year.

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox Betting Trends: July 20, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Payton Tolle      Record this season: 5-6      ERA: 3.11
• Home Record: 2-3
• Last 5 against Orioles: 1-0

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last 14 games against American League opponents.
• The Orioles have lost each of their last 13 road games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven road games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last six night games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last nine night games.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in four of their last five games as favorites against the Orioles.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last 11 night games against American League opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Shane Baz      Record this season: 4-9      ERA: 4.19
• Road Record: 1-6
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 3-1

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The underdogs have won seven of the Orioles’ last eight games at Fenway Park.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last four games as home favorites against the Orioles following a win.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as road underdogs.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 home games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last nine home games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Orioles’ last eight games as underdogs against the Red Sox have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Red Sox’s last eight night games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in nine of the Orioles’ last 10 games.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the last four night games between the Orioles and Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Willson Contreras has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Payton Tolle has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Red Sox as favorites against AL opponents.
• Caleb Durbin has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances against the Orioles.
• Willson Contreras ranks 8th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.551) this season.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Tyler O’Neill has hit at least one home run in three of the Orioles’ last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Shane Baz has recorded a win in three of his four previous appearances with his team as an underdog against the Red Sox .
• Shane Baz has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Pete Alonso has recorded at least one hit in each of his eight previous appearances with his team as an underdog against the Red Sox.
• Taylor Ward ranks 9th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.389) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank 2nd in the league for runs allowed this season (368).
• The Red Sox rank 2nd in the league for runs allowed this season (368).
• The Orioles rank 27th in the league for strikeouts against this season (918).
• The Orioles rank 27th in the league for strikeouts against this season (918).

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction

I’m on the Orioles in this one. Hard to go against the Red Sox in their current form, but the Orioles at this price are worth the look. Tolle’s been inconsistent as of late and Baz has been an underappreciated option for Baltimore. Add in the Baltimore bats looking solid against lefties as of late, and I think the O’s are worth the play.