Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Prediction 5/22/26 MLB Picks Today

The Minnesota Twins and the Boston Red Sox meet Friday in MLB action from Fenway Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Minnesota Twins will send out Connor Prielipp for the start in this one and Prielipp is 1-2 with a 2.88 ERA and 29 strikeouts this season. This will be Prielipp’s first career start against the Red Sox. Payton Tolle will start for the Red Sox here and is 2-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 30 strikeouts this season. This will be Tolle’s first career start against the Twins.

Minnesota Twins Recap

The Minnesota Twins come into this game looking to build on their 4-1 win over the Houston Astros last time out to improve to 23-27 this season. After this series, the Twins will head on the road for a series against the Chicago White Sox.

Twins Win 3 Of Last 4

Byron Buxton has 46 hits with 9 doubles, a triple, 15 home runs and 23 RBIs while Josh Bell’s added 40 hits with 8 doubles, 5 home runs and 29 RBIs. Luke Keaschall has 39 hits with 8 doubles, a homer and 17 RBIs and Matt Wallner has 20 hits with 3 doubles, 4 home runs and 10 RBIs. Brooks Lee has 5 home runs with 24 RBIs and Victor Caratini has 16 RBIs while Ryan Jeffers has 36 hits with 6 doubles, a triple, 7 home runs and 26 RBIs this season.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to add on to their 4-3 win over the Kansas City Royals last time out to improve to 22-27 this season. After this series, the Red Sox will take on the Atlanta Braves at home.

Red Sox Win 3 In A Row

Wilyer Abreu leads the Red Sox with 534 hits including 7 doubles, a triple, 6 home runs and 19 RBIs while Trevor Story has 34 hits with 7 doubles, 3 homers and 19 RBIs and Marcelo Mayer’s added 29 hits with 6 doubles, 2 home runs and 9 RBIs as well. Roman Anthony has 25 hits with 5 doubles, a triple, a home run and 5 RBIs so far this season while Jarren Duran has 34 hits with 9 doubles, 6 home runs and 24 RBIs as well this season. Willson Contreras has added 45 hits with 6 doubles, 10 homers and 30 RBIs of his own on the year.

Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox Betting Trends: May 22, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Payton Tolle      Record this season: 2-2      ERA: 2.05
• Home Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Twins: –

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last seven games against AL Central opponents.
• The Twins have lost each of their last eight Friday night games.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Friday night games.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against AL Central opponents.
• The Twins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last eight Friday night games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Connor Prielipp      Record this season: 1-2      ERA: 2.88
• Road Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Red Sox: –

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• The Red Sox have lost eight of their last nine games as home favorites against American League opponents following a win.
• The underdogs have won four of the Twins’ last five games at Fenway Park.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 home games against American League opponents following a win.
• The road team has covered the run line in six of the Red Sox’s last seven games.
• The Twins have led after 5 innings in 16 of their last 20 games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Twins have won the first inning in four of their last five games as underdogs against the Red Sox.
• The Twins have led after 3 innings in each of their last four road games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last five home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Twins’ last six road games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Red Sox’s last seven night games at Fenway Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Twins’ last five games as underdogs against American League opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Jarren Duran has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox’s last two games.
• Masataka Yoshida has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances in night games against AL teams that held a losing record.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Byron Buxton has hit at least one home run in each of the Twins’ last four night games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Ryan Jeffers has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in night games against AL teams that held a losing record.
• Byron Buxton ranks T5th in the league in Home Runs (15) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Red Sox rank 29th in the league for runs scored this season (181).
• The Red Sox rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (36).
• The Twins rank 26th in the league for strikeouts this season (382).
• The Twins rank T5th in the league for home runs allowed this season (44).

Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction

I’m on the Red Sox in this one. I don’t really trust either one of these teams against a lefty, so Prielipp and Tolle should be in a good spot here, but I trust the Red Sox’s bullpen a lot more than I trust Minnesota’s in this spot and I think the Red Sox take care of business at home here. Give me the Red Sox.