Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Prediction 7-30-24 Picks

In this article we will formulate a Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, July 30th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game two in the series.

Red Sox Looking for Elusive Back to Back Wins 

The Boston Red Sox are 56-49 this year and they have lost two of their last three games. Boston won the first game in this series by a score of 14-7 on Monday night. Prior to this series, the Red Sox lost two out of three against the Yankees, lost two out of three against the Rockies, and lost all three against the Dodgers. Boston is just 3-7 in their last 10 games and they are third in the AL East. 

The Boston pitching staff has a 3.94 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .245 opponent batting average. The Red Sox offense has scored 513 runs with a .259 batting average and a .327 on base percentage. Rafael Devers is batting .297 with 23 home runs and 64 RBI’s for the Red Sox this season. Boston has allowed at least seven runs in five straight games. 

Mariners are Battling the Astros 

The Seattle Mariners are 56-52 this season and they have won three of their last four games. Seattle dropped the first game in this series and they allowed 14 runs in the loss. Prior to this series, the Mariners swept the White Sox in three games, lost all three against the Angels, and lost two out of three against the Astros. Seattle is 4-9 in their last 13 games and they are tied with Houston in the AL West. 

The Seattle pitching staff has a 3.45 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a .220 opponent batting average. The Mariners offense has scored 419 runs with a .218 batting average and a .300 on base percentage. Cal Raleigh is batting .218 with 23 home runs and 67 RBI’s for the Mariners this season. Seattle has scored at least six runs in four straight games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Boston is James Paxton, who is 8-2 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP over 89.1 innings pitched this season. Paxton has allowed three earned runs or more in three of his last four starts. The projected starting pitcher for Seattle is Luis Castillo, who is 8-10 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 130.1 innings pitched this year. Castillo has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Mariners

• The Mariners have lost each of their last six night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have won eight of their last nine home games against the Mariners.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line each of their last eight night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last seven night games against the Mariners following a win.
• The Red Sox have won the first inning in five of their last six games as home underdogs against AL West opponents.
• The Mariners have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last five games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last eight games between the Mariners and Red Sox at Fenway Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Mariners’ last four games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last eight games as home underdogs.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mariners’ last eight games against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Trevor Story has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four home appearances against the Mariners.
• James Paxton has recorded a win in each of his last five home appearances against AL West opponents.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 12 appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Jarren Duran has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight appearances.
• Jarren Duran has recorded a Double in six of his last seven appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight home appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Trevor Story has hit at least one home run in three of his last four home appearances against the Mariners.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

• Cal Raleigh has hit at least one home run in five of his last eight appearances with the Mariners as road favorites.
• Randy Arozarena has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances with his team as a favorite against AL opponents.
• Randy Arozarena has recorded two or more total bases in six of his last seven appearances with his team as a road favorite.
• Luis Castillo has recorded five or more strikeouts in 30 of his last 36 appearances with the Mariners as favorites against AL opponents.
• Mitch Garver has recorded at least one hit in nine of his last 10 appearances against AL East opponents.
• Julio Rodriguez has recorded at least one RBI in three of his last four appearances in night games.
• J.P. Crawford has scored at least one run in each of his last five appearances with the Mariners as road favorites.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Boston Red Sox rank 2nd in the league for doubles this season (197).
• The Boston Red Sox are one of only 2 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.
• The Seattle Mariners rank 30th in the league for hits this season (746).
• The Seattle Mariners rank 30th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1068).

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Prediction 

Boston was able to score 14 runs in their win on Monday night, but they have struggled to string wins together recently. The Red Sox are 26-27 at home, while the Mariners are 25-29 on the road this season. Seattle let a pretty big lead slip away in the AL West and they are one of the lowest scoring teams in baseball. Boston is going to start Paxton, who was just acquired from the Dodgers, but he has just been alright recently. Seattle is turning to Castillo, who has been very good over his last four outings. I think the Mariners have the advantage with the starting pitching, but I can’t trust their offense at all and they are under .500 on the road. My Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners prediction is for Boston to win.