Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 9-28-24 MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, September 28th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game two in the series.

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 80-80 this season and they have lost two games in a row. Boston lost the first game in this series and only scored one run in the game. Prior to this series, the Red Sox won two out of three against the Blue Jays, won two out of three against the Twins, and lost two out of three against the Rays. Boston is 4-4 in their last eight games and they are third in the AL East. 

The Boston pitching staff has a 4.04 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .246 opponent batting average. The Red Sox offense has scored 746 runs with a .252 batting average and a .319 on base percentage. Jarren Duran is batting .286 with 21 home runs and 75 RBI’s for the Red Sox this season. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 79-81 this year and they have lost three of their last four games. Tampa Bay won game one in this series by a score of 2-1 on Friday night. Prior to this series, the Rays lost all three against the Tigers, won all three against the Blue Jays, and won two out of three against the Red Sox. Tampa Bay is 5-3 in their last eight games and they are fourth in the AL East. 

The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .236 opponent batting average. The Rays offense has scored 596 runs with a .230 batting average and a .302 on base percentage. Yandy Diaz is batting .280 with 14 home runs and 65 RBI’s for the Rays this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Kutter Crawford, who is 9-15 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 179.1 innings pitched this season. Crawford has allowed at least three earned runs in three straight starts. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Shane Baz, who is 3-3 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 73.1 innings pitched this year. Baz has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. 

Why the Rays will beat the Red Sox

• The underdogs have won each of the last seven games between the Rays and Red Sox.
• The Red Sox have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games at Fenway Park.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 home games against the Rays following a home loss.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last five day games against the Red Sox.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last four Saturday day games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Twelve of the Rays’ last 13 games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Red Sox’s last nine day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 10 games against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last eight games against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Masataka Yoshida has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Red Sox as home favorites against AL opponents.
• Trevor Story has recorded two or more total bases in five of his six previous appearances with his team as a home favorite against the Rays.
• Jarren Duran has recorded a Single in each of the Red Sox’s last five day games.
• Connor Wong has recorded a hit in eight of his last nine appearances against the Rays after playing the previous day.
• Rafael Devers has recorded an RBI in four of the Red Sox’s last five day games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Rafael Devers has hit a home run in four of the Red Sox’s last five day games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Rafael Devers has scored a run in seven of his last eight appearances with the Red Sox as home favorites against the Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Josh Lowe has recorded a Double in three of the Rays’ last four games as road underdogs against the Red Sox.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Rays’ last three day games.
• Josh Lowe has scored at least one run in six of the Rays’ last seven games at Fenway Park.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Rays’ last three day games.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded at least one Single in each of his last five road appearances after playing the previous day.
• Josh Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of the Rays’ last seven games at Fenway Park.
• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with the Rays as road underdogs against AL East opponents.

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 

Tampa Bay was able to bounce back after getting swept in their previous series with a 2-1 win on Friday night, but their offense continues to be very low scoring. The Rays are 37-42 on the road this year, while the Red Sox are 37-42 at home. I know Tampa Bay has been awful at scoring runs, but their pitching staff has done a very nice job this season. Shane Baz has been lights out for the Rays over the last few weeks and I like them to get the win at a nice price here.