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Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals Prediction 5-12-24 Picks

Washington Nationals (19-18) vs. Boston Red Sox (19-19)
May 12, 2024 1:35 pm EDT
The Line: Boston Red Sox -140 / Washington Nationals +129; Over/Under: +8
(Get latest betting odds)

The Washington Nationals and the Boston Red Sox meet Sunday in MLB action from Fenway Park. Here’s a Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals prediction. This will be the final installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game.

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Nationals played a couple of games versus the Baltimore Orioles this week. Washington split that pair with results 3-0 (win) and 7-6 (loss). After a 5-1 opener win over the Red Sox, on Saturday the Nationals gave up two runs in the bottom of the eighth on the way to a 4-2 loss. Jake Irvin put up 7.0 innings in the starting role with two earned on four hits.

In the starting pitcher role for the Nationals on Sunday it’ll be MacKenzie Gore. This year Gore is 2-3 with a 3.44 ERA in seven starts. So far he’s got 42 Ks in 34.0 innings. Gore has a 13-17 career record with a 4.31 ERA in 50 games (47 starts).

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

Over on the Red Sox’ side, they took on the Atlanta Braves in their last series. Boston didn’t fare very well in that one, losing 4-2 Tuesday and 5-0 in game two. On Saturday against Washington the Red Sox had a 6-4 advantage in hits during the victory. Starter Cooper Criswell put up 5.0 innings with two earned on three hits and a walk.

As starter for Sunday’s matchup the Red Sox are sending out Brayan Bello. This year Bello is 3-1 with a 3.04 ERA and 26 Ks over 26.2 innings in five starts. In his career Bello is 17-20 with a 4.22 ERA in 46 games (44 starts.

Nationals vs Red Sox Injury Notes

Red Sox SP Garrett Whitlock (oblique) will make a rehab start with Triple-A Worcester on Wednesday.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

  • The Red Sox have won each of their last seven games against NL East opponents following a home win.
  • The Nationals have lost four of their last five day games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Red Sox have covered the run line in eight of their last nine home games against NL East opponents following a win.
  • The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five day games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven Sunday games.

Why the Washington Nationals will win

  • The Nationals have won each of their last seven day games against American League opponents following a loss.
  • The Red Sox have lost eight of their last nine day games at Fenway Park following a win.
  • The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last 10 road games following a loss.
  • The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 day games at Fenway Park following a win.

Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals Prediction

I’ll probably take a stab on the Nationals. I could go either way here, though. Gore hasn’t been too bad over his last three appearances. In that trio he’s got five combined earned runs on 16 hits and five walks in 14.0 innings. Gore is 0-2 in that time though, so he’ll need some help from the offense on Sunday.

In Saturday’s matchup, Washington didn’t look great offensively. The team came up with just four hits total, with two of those belonging to CJ Abrams (2-for-4). The other pair came via solo homers courtesy of Joey Meneses and Eddie Rosario. The good news is that Irvin was quite solid in the start—the pen faltered, though. Washington needs to be better in both aspects on Sunday.

Andrew's Free Pick: Washington Nationals +129

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Andrew

Andrew has been writing about college, professional and fantasy sports betting since 2013. Andrew's goal is to break down the complicated numbers and trends into a language that's easily accessible to novice sports bettors and seasoned professionals alike.

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