Braves vs Nationals Game 1 Prediction 9/16/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Braves vs Nationals Prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, September 16^th at the Nationals Park in this double-header, with the Braves having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Washington Nationals Preview

The Washington Nationals have a 62-88 record this season and are sitting on the last place of the NL East. The Nationals have a 31-44 home record and are 76-65 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-11 home defeat by the Braves, and are 2-4 in their last 6 games. They are playing the Mets and the Braves next.

The Nationals have a .244 batting average this season, .307 OBP and .389 Slugging percentage. Washington’s pitching staff has a 5.32 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. James Wood leads the Nationals with 143 hits, while CJ Abrams is the team’s best hitter with a .263 batting average. James Wood adds a team-high 88 RBI and leads the team in home runs, with 27.

Jake Irvin (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals for Game 1, and he has an 8-12 record, 5.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP.

MacKenzie Gore (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals for Game 2, and he has a 5-14 record, 4.14 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.

Atlanta Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves have a 67-83 record this season and are sitting on the 4^th place of the NL East. The Braves have a 31-44 road record and 68-72 in over/under. They are coming off a 11-3 road victory over the Nationals, and have back-to-back wins. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 games and are playing the Nationals and the Tigers next.

The Braves have a .243 batting average this season, .317 OBP and .394 Slugging percentage. Atlanta’s pitching staff has a 4.45 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Matt Olson leads the Braves with 159 hits, and he is also the team’s best hitter with a .277 batting average. He leads the team both in RBI, with 87, and in home runs with 26.

The Braves have not yet announced a starting pitcher for Game 1 of this double-header.

Chris Sale (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves for Game 2, and he has a 5-5 record, 2.52 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals Betting Trends: September 16, 2025: Game 1

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jake Irvin      Record this season: 8-12      ERA: 5.70
• Home Record: 2-4
• Last 5 against Braves: 2-0

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Braves have lost each of their last five games as favorites against the Nationals following a road win.
• The Nationals have won five of their last six games as home underdogs against NL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last six day games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games against the Nationals following a road win.
• The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games at Nationals Park.
• The Nationals have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against the Braves at Nationals Park.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: TBD

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Braves have won seven of their last eight day games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have lost each of their last three games against NL East opponents.
• The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last seven road games.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last three games against NL East opponents.
• The Braves have led after 3 innings in three of their last four day games.
• The Braves have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight day games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Braves’ last four day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Nationals’ last six games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last four games against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Nationals’ last eight home games.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• CJ Abrams has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his last 15 appearances in day games against NL East teams that held a losing record.
• Luis Garcia has hit a home run in three of his last seven appearances with the Nationals as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Keibert Ruiz has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against the Braves.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Matt Olson has hit a home run in each of the Braves’ last three games.
• Matt Olson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves’ last 11 road games against the Nationals.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Nationals rank 29th in the league for ERA this season (5.32).
• The Nationals rank 29th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.267).
• The Braves rank 27th in the league for steals this season (75).
• The Braves rank 4th in the league for walks this season (519).

Braves vs Nationals Game 1 Prediction

Both teams are tied 5-5 wins in their last 10 meetings, but the Nationals are 3-1 their last 4 meetings in Washington. Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 meetings.

The Nationals have the worst bullpen ERA in baseball, while the Braves have a better offense. For Game 1 – Irvin has been terrible for the Nationals this season, and he is coming into this matchup in terrible form, having lost his last 5 starts and having a 9.13 ERA in that span. Braves bats are hot, with 19 runs in their last two games, and given the uncertainty around Atlanta’s starter in Game 1, I would go with the over in that one.

For Game 2 – the Braves have a huge pitching advantage, as Sale goes up against MacKenzie Gore, with Gore being weaker at home. Sale has a 1.71 ERA in his last 5 starts, and the Nationals are the 4th-weakest team against left-handed pitching this season, so take the Braves on the moneyline in Game 2.