Braves vs Padres Prediction 5/23/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Braves vs Padres prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 23rd at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 24-25 this year after they lost two games against the Nationals by scores of 3-5 and 7-8. In their game two loss, Atlanta led 2-0 in the first inning, but they needed a run in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game, before losing in the 10th. The Braves recorded 10 hits in the game, and they were led by Harris II, Ozuna, and Olson, who all had two RBIs in the loss. Atlanta started Smith-Shawver, who allowed eight hits and seven earned runs over 3.0 innings, while Lee picked up the loss in extra innings. 

Prior to that series, the Braves won two out of three against the Red Sox and three out of four against the Nationals. Atlanta has lost three of their last four games, and they are currently third in the NL East standings. The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.85 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .235 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 205 runs with a .247 batting average and a .318 on-base percentage this year. Matt Olson has led Atlanta with 11 home runs and 28 RBIs, while Austin Riley has added eight home runs and 28 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Chris Sale, who is 2-3 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP over 54.2 innings pitched this year. 

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are 27-21 this season after they lost all three games against the Blue Jays by scores of 3-0, 14-0, and 7-6. In their game three loss, San Diego led 2-0 in the second inning, but needed two runs in the ninth to tie the game, before losing in the 11th inning. The Padres recorded eight hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Sheets, who went 3-5 with two home runs and five RBIs in the loss. San Diego started Kolek, who allowed seven hits and three earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Estrada took the loss. 

Prior to that series, the Padres lost all three against the Mariners, but did win two out of three against the Angels before that. San Diego has lost six games in a row, and they are currently third in the NL West standings. The San Diego pitching staff has a 3.50 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and a .221 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 205 runs with a .256 batting average and a .321 on-base percentage this season. Fernando Tatis has led San Diego with 12 home runs and 27 RBIs, while Gavin Sheets has added eight home runs and 28 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Nick Pivetta, who is 5-2 with a 2.86 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP over 50.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Braves will beat the Padres

• The Braves have won each of their last eight games at Truist Park following an extra-innings loss.
• The Padres have lost each of their last six games.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games.
• The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last six night games at Truist Park following an extra-innings loss.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record at Truist Park.
• The Braves have led after 3 innings in eight of their last 10 games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games as road underdogs against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Braves’ last eight home games after going to extra innings have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Padres’ last four road games after going to extra innings have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last six games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last four games.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Ronald Acuna Jr. has scored at least one run in 12 of his last 13 appearances in night games against NL West teams that held a winning record.
• Austin Riley has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves’ last 17 home games against NL opponents.
• Chris Sale has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances.
• Chris Sale has recorded a win in each of his last five home appearances against NL West opponents.
• Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven appearances with the Braves as home favorites against NL West opponents.
• Matt Olson has hit a home run in each of the Braves’ last four night games.
• Matt Olson has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Braves’ last five games.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Luis Arraez has recorded a Double in each of the Padres’ last three games.
• Nick Pivetta has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Padres as underdogs.
• Manny Machado has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Padres’ last four games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has scored at least one run in seven of the Padres’ last eight night games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Nick Pivetta has recorded six or more strikeouts in nine of his last 10 appearances in night games.
• Luis Arraez has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 11 appearances at Truist Park.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Luis Campusano has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Padres as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Nick Pivetta ranks T8th in the league for Wins (5) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Braves rank 8th in the league for hits allowed this season (377).
• The Braves rank 10th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.235).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (337).
• The Padres rank 3rd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.221).

Braves vs Padres Prediction 

San Diego limps into this series after getting swept by Seattle and Toronto in their last six games, and they have scored one run or fewer in four of their last five. The Padres are 11-13 on the road this year, while the Braves are 15-7 at home. Atlanta has dropped three of their last four games, and their pitching staff has struggled, but they are starting Sale, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. San Diego is going with Pivetta, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five. Sale has been the better starter in recent outings, and I can’t trust this San Diego team right now. Take the Braves here.