Braves vs Phillies Prediction 9/29/26 MLB Picks Today

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves meet Tuesday in MLB playoff action at Truist Park. Here’s a Braves vs. Phillies Prediction. This article will include a Braves vs. Phillies Pick.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 88-74 on the year and just played the Brewers and Rays. The Philadelphia Phillies are batting .240 on the season, with a .312 OBP and a .395 slugging percentage. The Philadelphia Phillies’ pitching staff has a 4.04 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Trea Turner leads the Philadelphia Phillies with 156 hits and 58 RBI, while Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm have combined for 296 hits and 175 RBI.

Jesus Luzardo gets the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he is 14-5 with a 2.86 ERA and 231 strikeouts this season. Luzardo is 4-4 with a 2.89 ERA and 79 strikeouts in his career against the Atlanta Braves. Luzardo is 0-4 with a 4.84 ERA and 24 strikeouts in his postseason career.

Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 94-68 on the year, and they just played the Astros, Reds, and Marlins. The Atlanta Braves are batting .246 on the season and have a .309 OBP and a .409 slugging percentage. The Atlanta Braves’ pitching staff has a 3.63 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. Michael Harris II leads the Atlanta Braves with 174 hits and 87 RBI, while Matt Olson and Mauricio Dubon have combined for 315 hits and 166 RBI.

Chris Sale gets the ball for the Atlanta Braves, and he is 14-9 with a 2.16 ERA and 200 strikeouts this season. Sale is 5-2 with a 3.27 ERA and 83 strikeouts in his career against the Philadelphia Phillies. Sale is 1-3 with a 6.35 ERA and 47 strikeouts in his postseason career.

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Braves have won each of their last 16 Tuesday home games against NL East opponents.
• The Phillies have lost each of their last seven road games against the Braves following a win.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 12 games against the Braves following a win.
• The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last six games against the Phillies following a loss.
• The Braves have won the first inning in five of their last six home games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last three games as underdogs.
• The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games as underdogs.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Braves have lost four of their last five playoff games as favorites.
• The underdogs have won three of the Phillies’ last four games.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last six playoff games against the Braves.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine home games against NL opponents.
• The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last eight playoff games.
• The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games against NL opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Braves’ last four day playoff games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Phillies’ last six games as road underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Phillies’ last five games at Truist Park.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of Chris Sale’s last four home appearances as a starter.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Matt Olson has hit a home run in three of the Braves’ last four home games against the Phillies.
• Chris Sale has recorded a win in seven of his last eight appearances against NL East opponents.
• Chris Sale has recorded eight or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances with the Braves as favorites.
• Drake Baldwin has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves’ last 14 home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Chris Sale ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (2.16) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Edmundo Sosa has hit a home run in three of his last four road appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 12 appearances against NL East opponents.
• Bryce Harper has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last eight playoff games against the Braves.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded a win in five of his last six road appearances.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks T1st in the league in Home Runs (45) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Braves rank 29th in the league for triples this season (13).
• The Braves rank 28th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.309).
• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1577).
• The Phillies are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.

Braves vs Phillies Prediction

The Braves are the better team and should be favored at home, especially with Sale on the mound. However, Sale doesn’t have the best postseason track record, as he has an ERA over 6 through 34 innings. You can say similar things about Luzardo on a lesser scale, but through 16.2 innings in the month of September, he’s allowed 8 hits and 1 run while striking out 18. The Phillies are also 8-0 with Luzardo on the mound since August. Division matchup where there are no surprises from either side. At this price, the Phillies are worth a look given Luzardo’s form and the Phillies’ success with him. I’ll grab the Phillies at this price.