Braves vs Pirates Prediction 9/26/25 MLB Picks Today

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves meet Friday in MLB action at Truist Park. Here’s a Braves vs Pirates Prediction. This article will include a Braves vs Pirates Pick.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 69-90 on the year after playing the Reds. The Pittsburgh Pirates are batting .230 on the season, have a .304 OBP, and a .349 slugging percentage. The Pittsburgh Pirates pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Bryan Reynolds leads the Pittsburgh Pirates with 140 hits and 73 RBI while Andrew McCutchen and Nick Gonzales have combined for 208 hits and 85 RBI.

Mitch Keller gets the ball for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he is 6-15 with a 4.22 ERA and 144 strikeouts this season. Keller is 1-3 with a 7.94 ERA and 25 strikeouts in his career against the Atlanta Braves.

Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 75-84 on the year after playing the Nationals. The Atlanta Braves are batting .246 on the season, have a .321 OBP, and a .400 slugging percentage. The Atlanta Braves pitching staff has a 43.6 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Matt Olson leads the Atlanta Braves with 167 hits and 93 RBI while Michael Harris II and Ozzie Alies have combined for 293 hits and 159 RBI.

Joey Wentz gets the ball for the Atlanta Braves, and he is 5-6 with a 5.46 ERA and 89 strikeouts this season. Wentz is 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA and 5 strikeouts in his career against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves Betting Trends: September 26, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Joey Wentz      Record this season: 5-6      ERA: 5.46
• Home Record: 2-3
• Last 5 against Pirates: 0-0

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Braves have won 10 of their last 11 games.
• The Pirates have lost seven of their last eight night games following a loss.
• The Braves have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six road games against NL East opponents.
• The Pirates have lost the first inning in each of their last three games at Truist Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Braves have led after 3 innings in nine of their last 10 night games against the Pirates at Truist Park.
• The Braves have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight night games against the Pirates at Truist Park.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Mitch Keller      Record this season: 6-15      ERA: 4.22
• Road Record: 3-5
• Last 5 against Braves: 1-3

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won each of their last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Braves have lost nine of their last 11 games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a home loss.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last eight games against the Braves following a loss.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in 17 of their last 19 games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven home games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last eight Friday games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have won the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last six games between the Pirates and Braves have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Pirates’ last eight games as underdogs against the Braves have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the last eight games between the Pirates and Braves.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last five night games at Truist Park.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Marcell Ozuna has recorded a Double in four of his five previous appearances against the Pirates after not playing the previous day.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit a home run in four of the Braves’ last five night games.
• Austin Riley has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances against NL Central opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in four of the Pirates’ last six games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded a Double in each of the Pirates’ last three games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Mitch Keller has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Pirates as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Mitch Keller has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances with the Pirates as road underdogs.
• Jared Triolo has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a losing record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Braves rank 3rd in the league for walks this season (566).
• The Braves rank 26th in the league for doubles this season (238).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (570).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (113).

Braves vs Pirates Prediction

I’m not excited to get behind a team that’s has nothing to play for at this stage, but the Braves are playing their best ball of the season and are one of the few teams showing some pride. Wentz hasn’t been good this season and has allowed 26 hits and 14 earned runs in his last 15.1 innings, but the Braves are rolling right now. The Pirates have lost 6 of the last 7 times Keller has taken the mound. There are better games out there on Friday’s MLB card, but I’m siding the Braves if forced to pick.