Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction 9/28/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, September 28^th at the Wrigley Field in the third game of this series, with the Cubs having the 2-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have a 91-70 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL Central. The Cubs have a 49-31 home record and are 74-74 in over/under. They are coming off a 7-3 home win over the Cardinals, and are 3-1 in their last 4 games. Over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games.

The Cubs have a .250 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .431 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Nico Hoerner leads the Cubs with 177 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .297 batting average. Seiya Suzuki leads the team in RBI, with 102, while Michael Busch adds a team-high 34 home runs.

Javier Assad (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 3-1 record, 4.26 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.

Saint Louis Cardinals Preview

The Saint Louis Cardinals have a 78-83 record this season and are sitting on the 4^th place of the NL Central. The Cardinals have a 34-45 road record and are 81-72 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-7 road defeat by the Cubs, and have three straight losses. Over is 4-1 in their last 5 games.

The Cardinals have a .245 batting average this season, .315 OBP and .379 Slugging percentage. Saint Louis’ pitching staff has a 4.30 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Alec Burleson leads the Cardinals with 144 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .290 batting average. Wilson Contreras leads the team in RBI, with 80, adding a team-high 20 home runs.

Kyle Leahy (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals, and he has a 4-2 record, 3.18 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.

St. Louis Cardinals @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: September 28, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Javier Assad      Record this season: 3-1      ERA: 4.26
• Home Record: 2-0
• Last 5 against Cardinals: 0-1

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last seven games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Cardinals have lost eight of their last nine games at Wrigley Field against teams that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have covered the run line each of their last seven games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games at Wrigley Field against teams that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have won the first inning in each of their last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in eight of their last nine games as home favorites against National League opponents.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 road day games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Kyle Leahy      Record this season: 4-2      ERA: 3.18
• Road Record: 2-1
• Last 5 against Cubs: 0-0

Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win

• The Cubs have lost seven of their last nine games as favorites against the Cardinals following a home win.
• The Cardinals have won three of their last four games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games as home favorites following a home win.
• The Cardinals have covered the run line in four of their last five games as underdogs after playing the previous day.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs’ last six games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Cardinals’ last four games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cardinals’ last five games at Wrigley Field.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last five day games between the Cardinals and Cubs at Wrigley Field.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Ian Happ has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 10 games as favorites.
• Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in four of the Cubs’ last five home games against the Cardinals.
• Nico Hoerner ranks 6th in the league in Hits (177) this season.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Nolan Arenado has hit a home run in two of the Cardinals’ last three games as underdogs.
• Brendan Donovan has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances.
• Brendan Donovan has recorded at least one Double in four of his last five appearances.
• Victor Scott II ranks T10th in the league in Steals (33) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (404).
• The Cubs rank 3rd in the league for RBIs this season (769).
• The Cardinals rank 30th in the league for triples this season (8).
• The Cardinals rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (148).

Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction

The Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 head-to-head meetings against the Cardinals, and are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Chicago. Over is 6-2 in their last 8 meetings.

In this Cardinals vs Cubs Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -165 home favorites. The Cardinals are finishing the season with a bullpen game, while the Cubs are looking to stay sharp and enter the playoffs in good form. Assad has been better at home with a 3.86 ERA, and has been in good form lately, with a 4-1 record and 3.91 ERA across his last 5 starts. Chicago has a superior offense to offer Assad run support, so I expect them to get the job done at home in this one.