Cardinals vs Padres Prediction 7/26/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Cardinals vs Padres prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, July 26th at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals are 54-51 this year after they won the first two games in this series by scores of 9-7 and 3-0. In their game two win, St. Louis scored once in the second and twice in the fourth for the shutout win. The Cardinals recorded five hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Winn, who went 1-2 with two RBIs in the win. St. Louis started Mikolas, who allowed seven hits and zero earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Helsley picked up the save. 

Prior to this series, the Cardinals lost two out of three against the Rockies and all three against the Diamondbacks. St. Louis has won three of their last five games and they are currently fourth in the NL Central standings. The St. Louis pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .256 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 473 runs with a .253 batting average and a .322 on base percentage this season. Wilson Contreras has led St. Louis with 14 home runs, 61 RBIs, and four stolen bases, while Nolan Arenado has added 10 home runs and 43 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for St. Louis is Matthew Liberatore, who is 6-7 with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 100.1 innings pitched this year. 

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are 55-49 this season after they lost game two by a score of 3-0 on Friday night. San Diego generated plenty of hits in the game, but couldn’t find any runs in the low scoring loss. The Padres recorded 11 hits in the game and they committed one error, while they were led by Tatis, Machado, and Bogaerts, who all had two hits in the loss. SD started Pivetta, who allowed three hits and two earned runs over 6.1 innings for the loss, while Morgan and Peralta finished the game. 

Prior to this series, the Padres lost two out of three against the Marlins, but did win two out of three against the Nationals. San Diego has lost four games in a row and they are currently second in the NL West standings. The San Diego pitching staff has a 3.62 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .231 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 414 runs with a .247 batting average and a .314 on base percentage this season. Manny Machado has led San Diego with 19 home runs and 63 RBIs, while Fernando Tatis has added 17 home runs and 43 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Randy Vasquez, who is 3-4 with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 99.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Padres will beat the Cardinals

• The Cardinals have lost each of their last four games as favorites following a win.
• The Padres have won five of their last six games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last 11 Saturday night games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites following a home win.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven Saturday night games against the Cardinals.
• The Cardinals have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games as favorites against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Padres’ last nine night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Cardinals’ last five home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cardinals’ last six Saturday games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Padres’ last six night games at Busch Stadium.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Lars Nootbaar has hit a home run in each of his last two home appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Brendan Donovan has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cardinals’ last 15 games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
• Willson Contreras has recorded a Double in each of the Cardinals’ last five games against NL opponents.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one Double in five of the Padres’ last six games as road underdogs against NL opponents.
• Manny Machado has hit a home run in four of the Padres’ last seven games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last 10 games against NL opponents that held a winning record.

Cardinals vs Padres Prediction 

St. Louis has bounced back from that series loss to Colorado with two nice wins to start this series, as they try to stay in the wild card race. The Cardinals are 31-20 at home this season, while the Padres are 24-31 on the road. San Diego is trying to snap this losing streak and they will turn to Vasquez, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The Cardinals are going with Liberatore, who has also allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five, but did allow six earned runs last time out. I think Vasquez has done a great job of giving San Diego a chance to win and I like them with the plus money.