Cardinals vs Twins Prediction 3/27/25 MLB Picks Today

The Minnesota Twins and the Saint Louis Cardinals meet on Thursday in MLB action from Busch Stadium. This will be the opener in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Cardinals vs Twins prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Cardinals vs Twins pick.

Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Twins didn’t have the greatest year in 2024, ultimately finishing 82-80 overall. That was a regression from the previous season and left Minnesota in fourth place among the American League Central—four games behind the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers and 10.5 games behind the division champion Cleveland Guardians. The Twins were officially knocked out of postseason contention on September 27, despite having a 95 percent chance of making the playoffs early that month. The late-season collapse left the team four games out of a Wild Card spot at the end of the year. Minnesota’s goal will be to get back to the playoffs in 2025 under manager Rocco Baldelli and new outfielder Harrison Bader.

Taking the mound for the Thursday opener will be the Twins’ Pablo Lopez. Last season, Lopez went 15-10 overall with a 4.08 ERA and 198 strikeouts in 185.1 innings over 32 starts. In his career, Lopez is 54-49 with a 3.91 ERA in 158 total starts. Over Spring Training, Lopez struggled a bit with a 6.62 ERA and a 0-4 record in five starts. He notched 22 strikeouts in 17.2 total innings of work during that time.

Saint Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

Over on the Cardinals’ side, they managed to take a step forward record-wise last year. Saint Louis finished at 83-79 overall, quite an improvement over a rough 71-91 record the previous season. The bad news is that the Cardinals landed in second place among the National League Central, tied with the rival Chicago Cubs and 10 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers’ 93-69 overall record that won the division. St. Louis landed six games out of a Wild Card spot as well, with four other teams ahead of them. Likewise, the Cardinals will have the goal of making the playoffs in 2025 under manager Oliver Marmol—contending for the division title wouldn’t hurt either, but considering the uncertainty on the roster, any kind of improvement would be welcome in St. Louis.

As a starter for the 2025 home opener on Thursday, the Cardinals will send out Sonny Gray. Over four starts in Spring Training, Gray went 0-3 with an inflated 12.56 ERA. He managed 17 strikeouts in 14.1 innings, though. Last year, Gray posted a 13-9 overall record with a 3.84 ERA in 28 total starts. Over his career, Gray is 111-94 with a 3.51 ERA in 307 games (298 starts). He’s got 1724 strikeouts in 1737.1 innings of work.

Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win

• The Twins have lost seven of their last eight games.
• The Cardinals have won four of their last five home openers.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games.
• The Cardinals have covered the run line in each of their last four home openers.
• The Twins have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games.
• The Twins have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games.

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• The Cardinals have lost each of their last seven Thursday home games against American League opponents.
• The road team has won each of the Twins’ last four games.
• The Twins have covered the run line in eight of their last nine season openers.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven home games against AL Central opponents.
• The Twins have led after 3 innings in three of their last four road openers.
• The Twins have led after 5 innings in five of their last six road openers.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Twins’ last five road games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the last four games between the Twins and Cardinals have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cardinals’ last 10 home games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Twins’ last eight games at Busch Stadium.

Cardinals vs Twins Prediction

I’ll take a stab at the Cardinals here. It’d be nice to see Gray bounce back after a rocky spring, though, and St. Louis will need him to be on point during the opener. The good news is that Gray won double-digit games (13) for the first time since 2019 last season; the bad news is that he posted his highest ERA (3.84) since 2021 (4.19) in that time. Gray will need some help from the veteran pitchers behind him, as well as the young bats at the plate.

As for the Twins, they’d be happy with a playoff run themselves. That all starts with Lopez here, as he’ll be attempting to notch his fourth straight season of double-digit wins on the mound. Lopez’s ERA creeped up to 4.08 last year, though, his highest since hitting 5.09 in 2019 with the Marlins. Minnesota enters the year with a lot of question marks on their roster as well, but if older guys like Byron Buxton can stay healthy—and if younger guys like Zebby Matthews can continue to develop—the potential is there. For now, though, I like the Cards to take this one.