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Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Prediction 5-21-24 Picks

Atlanta Braves (26-17) vs. Chicago Cubs (26-22)
May 21, 2024 7:40 pm EDT
The Line: Chicago Cubs +115 / Atlanta Braves -125; Over/Under: +10.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Atlanta Braves and the Chicago Cubs meet Tuesday in MLB action from Wrigley Field. Here’s a Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves prediction. This will be the first installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game.

Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Braves took on the San Diego Padres over the weekend. Atlanta lost Friday 3-1 and Saturday 9-1 before a Sunday rainout and postponement. In the Monday doubleheader, the Braves took a close loss 6-5 in game one. In the nightcap Atlanta powered out a 3-0 win.

As starter for Tuesday’s matchup the Braves will send out Charlie Morton. This year in eight starts Morton is 3-1 with a 3.52 ERA and 44 Ks in 46.0 innings. Morton is 133-114 with a 3.99 career ERA in 361 games (360 starts).

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

Over on the Cubs’ side, they played four games versus the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend. Chicago only managed one win in that series, a 1-0 result on Saturday. Otherwise it was losses 5-4, 9-3 and 3-2. In Sunday’s loss, the Cubs’ Jameson Taillon went 4.2 innings in the start with six hits, three earned runs and two walks.

On Tuesday in the starting pitcher role the Cubs are going with Javier Assad. This season over his nine starts Assad is 4-0 with a 1.49 ERA and 42 Ks in 48.1 innings. Assad is 11-5 with a 2.67 ERA in 50 career games (27 starts).

Braves vs Cubs Injury Notes

Cubs 2B Nico Hoerner (hamstring) was not in the lineup for the Sunday matchup versus the Pirates.

Total Runs Facts

  • Each of the Cubs’ last eight night games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
  • Twelve of the Braves’ last 13 night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
  • The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last six games.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last three games.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

  • Cody Bellinger has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances after not playing the previous day.
  • Cody Bellinger has recorded an RBI in each of his last five home appearances against NL East opponents.
  • Dansby Swanson has scored at least one run in each of his last seven appearances with the Cubs as home underdogs.
  • Cody Bellinger has recorded two or more total bases in eight of his last nine home appearances against NL East opponents.
  • Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 18 home appearances against NL East opponents.
  • Cody Bellinger has recorded a Double in four of the Cubs’ last five games against NL opponents.
  • Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 14 appearances with the Cubs as underdogs against NL East opponents.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

  • Ozzie Albies has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances at Wrigley Field.
  • Jarred Kelenic has hit a home run in each of his three previous road appearances against the Cubs.
  • Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded at least one RBI in eight of his last nine appearances against NL Central opponents.
  • Michael Harris has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves’ last 16 night games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
  • Austin Riley has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven appearances in night games.
  • Michael Harris has recorded at least one total base in each of the Braves’ last 16 night games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
  • Ozzie Albies has scored at least one run in each of his last 11 road appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.

Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

I’ll take a stab on the Cubs. We should have a pretty good starter matchup if both guys are on point. Assad has given up just one earned run over his last three outings, going 2-0 with 16.1 innings, 13 hits and six walks. As for Morton, he’s coming off a spotty start against the Cubs (3.0 innings; three earned) but had just three earned in his previous 13.0 innings.

As for the Braves, on Monday they had one bad inning in the game one loss. That came with four runs in the eighth, which led to 10 Padres hits. Atlanta did well on offense themselves (12 team hits) though, which carried over into game two (11 team hits). I like the Braves to have some better luck in Tuesday’s opener, but Chicago should have a good shot. 

Andrew's Free Pick: Atlanta Braves -125

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Andrew

Andrew has been writing about college, professional and fantasy sports betting since 2013. Andrew's goal is to break down the complicated numbers and trends into a language that's easily accessible to novice sports bettors and seasoned professionals alike.

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