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Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 7-2-24 Picks

Philadelphia Phillies (55-29) vs. Chicago Cubs (39-46)
July 2, 2024 8:05 pm EDT
The Line: Chicago Cubs -128 / Philadelphia Phillies +109; Over/Under: +9.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Chicago Cubs meet Tuesday in MLB action from Wrigley Field. Here’s a Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction. This will be the first installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Phillies played the Miami Marlins in their weekend series. Philadelphia won 2-0 in the Friday game but otherwise dropped gamed 7-4 and 3-2 over the first trio. On Sunday the Phillies eked out a 7-6 win. Ranger Suarez started things off with 4.2 innings and six earned in a spotty outing.

In the starter slot for the Tuesday game the Phillies will send out Michael Mercado. So far this year (and in his MLB career) Mercado has just one appearance, posting a clean inning with one strikeout.

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

Over on the Cubs’ side, they’re coming off a weekend series versus the Milwaukee Brewers. Chicago lost 4-2 in the opener of that set, but then rattled off a 5-3 win in game two. In the Sunday rubber match the Cubs took a 7-1 loss. Kyle Hendricks had a rough start with 3.2 innings and seven earned runs.

As starter for Tuesday’s matchup the Cubs are going with Hayden Wesneski. This year Wesneski is 2-4 with a 3.60 ERA in 21 games (four starts). Over his career Wesneski is 8-11 with a 3.87 ERA in 61 games (19 starts).

Cubs vs Phillies Pick Injury Notes

Phillies 1B Bryce Harper hit the 10-day Injured List with a low-grade left hamstring strain. DH Kyle Schwarber did the same due to a mild left groin strain.

Cubs RP Mark Leiter (forearm) began a throwing program Friday.

Total Runs Facts

  • Ten of the Cubs’ last 11 night games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
  • Each of the Phillies’ last four games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last 12 night games.
  • The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last three games against NL Central opponents.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

  • Ian Happ has recorded at least one total base in each of the Cubs’ last nine home games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in each of the Cubs’ last two night games.
  • Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances against the Phillies.
  • Ian Happ has recorded a Double in four of the Cubs’ last five night games against opponents that held a winning record.
  • Ian Happ has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last nine home games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
  • Cody Bellinger has scored at least one run in each of the Cubs’ last eight Tuesday games at Wrigley Field.
  • Nico Hoerner has recorded at least one RBI in four of his five previous appearances against the Phillies after not playing the previous day.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

  • David Dahl has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven road appearances against NL Central opponents.
  • Bryce Harper has hit a home run in two of the Phillies’ last three road games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.
  • Trea Turner has scored at least one run in each of his last four appearances after not playing the previous day.
  • Bryce Harper has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last three appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
  • Bryce Harper has recorded at least one Double in seven of his last eight appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
  • Trea Turner has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 16 appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

I’ll go with the Cubs. This should be an interesting starter matchup, though. Wesneski has had his ups and downs over the last three outings, posting 7.0 innings, six earned runs, five hits and seven walks without a decision. As for Mercado, his first MLB inning went well with a strikeout, zero hits and zero walks.

Chicago’s offense was pretty choppy over the weekend. The Cubs posted just three combined runs in their two losses versus the Brewers (five in the win). Philadelphia has two or fewer runs in two of their last three games though, so we should have a fairly winnable game for Chicago here if all goes well.

Andrew's Free Pick: Chicago Cubs -128

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Andrew

Andrew has been writing about college, professional and fantasy sports betting since 2013. Andrew's goal is to break down the complicated numbers and trends into a language that's easily accessible to novice sports bettors and seasoned professionals alike.

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