Reds vs Red Sox Prediction 3/28/26 MLB Picks Today

The Boston Red Sox and the Cincinnati Reds meet Saturday in MLB action from Great American Ballpark. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Reds vs Red Sox Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Boston Red Sox will send out Sonny Gray for the start here and Gray is 14-8 with a 4.28 ERA and 201 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Reds, Gray is 1-3 with a 4.18 ERA and 33 strikeouts. Brady Singer will get the start for the Reds here and is 14-12 with a 4.03 ERA and 163 strikeouts last season. In his last five starts against the Red Sox, Singer is 2-2 with a 4.88 ERA and 22 strikeouts. 

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to build off of a 3-0 win over Cincinnati from their season opener to start the year 1-0. After this series, the Red Sox will take to the road for a series against the Houston Astros.

Red Sox Looking To Start Year With Series Win

Ceddanne Rafaela and Jarren Duran each had two hits with an RBI and Trevor Story chipped in an RBI to make up the scoring for Boston in the win, while Roman Anthony went 3 for 4 and Marcelo Mayer added a pair of hits with a double. Wilyer Abreu had a base knock as well to cap off the offense for Boston in the winning effort. Garrett Crochet got the win to improve to 1-0 after tossing six innings of three-hit, shutout baseball with 8 strikeouts while Aroldis Chapman closed out the 9th for the save. 

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Reds have lost each of their last nine day games against AL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have won five of their last six games against the Reds.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight home games against AL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last six road games against National League opponents following a road win.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Trevor Story has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances against the Reds.
• Sonny Gray has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Roman Anthony has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances with the Red Sox as road favorites.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in four of his last five road appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Sonny Gray ranked T8th in the league for Wins (14) last season.

Cincinnati Reds Recap

The Cincinnati Reds come into this game looking to bounce back from their shutout loss at the hands of Boston on Friday to start the year at 0-1. After this series, Cincinnati will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates at home.

Reds Looking To Get Even

Sal Stewart went 3 for 4 with a pair of doubles while Elly De La Cruz added a base knock as the only other Red to record a hit in the loss, with the rest of Cincinnati’s lineup going 0 for 24 with 10 strikeouts in the losing effort. Andrew Abbott went six innings of seven-hit shutout ball with four strikeouts, not factoring in the decision. Pierce Johnson took the loss in relief to fall to 0-1 on the year. 

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won each of their last 10 day games following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have lost seven of their last eight games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a road win.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last 13 Saturday games as home underdogs.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Saturday games as favorites against NL Central opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Elly De La Cruz has hit a home run in three of the Reds’ last five day games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in day games against AL East teams that held a winning record.
• Brady Singer has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last seven appearances in day games.
• Brady Singer has recorded a win in five of his last six home appearances.
• Eugenio Suarez ranked 5th in the league in Home Runs (49) last season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last eight games has gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the last nine games between the Red Sox and Reds at Great American Ball Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Reds vs Red Sox Prediction

I’m on the over here. In his lone start since pitching for the Reds at Great American, Sonny Gray got roughed up and I don’t expect that to change here. On the other side, I need to see Brady Singer deliver at home before I’m immediately convinced that he has Great American figured out. I’ll side with the over in this one.