Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction 9-8-23 MLB Picks

The St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds clash Friday in game 1 of an MLB series at Great American Ball Park. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.

St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The Cardinals look for a win after splitting their last 10 games. The Cardinals have the second-worst record in the NL at 61-79. The Cardinals pitching staff is 25th in ERA (4.70), 28th in WHIP (1.45) and 22nd in quality starts (44). The Cardinals’ offense is 16th in runs per game (4.58), 12th in batting average (.254) and 9th in homers (194). Paul Goldschmidt leads the Cardinals with 147 hits and 73 RBI, while Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras have combined for 242 hits and 145 RBI. Drew Rom gets the ball, and he is 0-2 with a 7.24 ERA and 11 strikeouts this season. This will be Rom’s first career game against the Reds.

St. Louis Cardinals Team Facts

• The Cardinals have won each of their last nine night games against the Reds following a loss.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven night games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five Friday games.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last seven Friday road games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cardinals’ last five games as underdogs.

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Reds look for a win after winning 5 of their last 7 games. The Reds are 0.5 games out of the NL wild card race. The Reds pitching staff is 23rd in ERA (4.74), 24th in WHIP (1.41) and 25th in quality starts (40). The Reds’ offense is 11th in runs per game (4.73), 16th in batting average (.248) and 17th in homers (163). Spencer Steer leads the Reds with 136 hits and 77 RBI, while TJ Friedl and Matt McLain have combined for 220 hits and 101 RBI. Andrew Abbott gets the ball, and he is 8-4 with a 3.22 ERA and 104 strikeouts this season. This will be Abbott’s second career game against the Cardinals.

Cincinnati Reds Team Facts

• The Reds have lost each of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents following a loss.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Reds’ last four games.
• The Reds have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last nine night games.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games against opponents that held a losing record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cincinnati Reds ranks 1st in the league for steals this season (163).
• The Cincinnati Reds ranks 3rd in the league for triples this season (30).
• The St. Louis Cardinals ranks 29th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.276).
• The St. Louis Cardinals ranks T2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (149).

Randy’s Pick

This is a ridiculously cheap price when you consider the Cardinals have nothing to play for and are throwing out a pitcher in Rom who has an ERA over 7 in a short sample size. The Reds need every win they can get as they chase a wild card spot, and Abbott has been solid with a 3.22 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. The Reds are also at home. This line smells fishy. I’ll still back the Reds for reasons already mentioned.