Guardians vs Rays Prediction 8/26/25 MLB Picks Today

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians meet Tuesday in MLB action from Progressive Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Guardians vs Rays Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Tampa Bay Rays will send out Shane Baz for the start here and Baz is 8-10 with a 5.22 ERA and 143 strikeouts this season. This will be Baz’s first career start against the Guardians. Parker Messick will start this one for the Guardians and is 0-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 6 strikeouts this season. This will be Messick’s first career start against the Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays come into this game looking to build on their 9-0 win over the Guardians on Monday to sit at 64-67 this season. After this series, the Rays will hit the road for a series with the Washington Nationals.

Rays Win Three In A Row

Jonathan Aranda has 113 hits with 22 doubles, 12 home runs and 54 RBIs. Brandon Lowe has 107 hits with 25 homers and 63 RBIs as well while Junior Caminero has 124 hits with 21 doubles, a team-high 37 home runs and 91 RBIs. Yandy Diaz has 135 hits with 22 doubles, 21 homers and 73 RBIs.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Guardians have lost each of their last four games as favorites.
• The underdogs have won five of the Guardians’ last six games at Progressive Field.
• The Rays have covered the run line each of their last seven road games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line each of their last six home games against American League opponents that held a losing record.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in three of the Rays’ last four games against AL Central opponents.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded a Double in three of the Rays’ last four road games against AL opponents.
• Yandy Diaz has recorded two hits in each of his last five appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Chandler Simpson ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (38) this season.

Cleveland Guardians Recap

The Cleveland Guardians come into this game looking to rebound from their third straight shutout loss on Monday to drop to 64-66 this season. After this set, the Guardians will square off against the Seattle Mariners in a series at home.

Guardians Drop Sixth Straight

Steven Kwan has 134 hits as part of a .275 batting average and 10 home runs, 22 doubles and 40 RBIs. Kyle Manzardo has 83 hits with 14 doubles, 2 triples, 21 home runs and 55 RBIs as well this year. Gabriel Arias has 20 doubles but also 121 strikeouts and Manzardo has 105 strikeouts so far this season. Arias has also added 9 home runs and 45 RBIs and Jose Ramirez has chipped in 26 home runs and 68 RBIs with 36 stolen bases as well. Carlos Santana has also added 89 hits with 11 home runs and 52 RBIs as well this season.

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Rays have lost each of their last nine games as underdogs against American League opponents following a road win.
• The Guardians have won each of their last nine Tuesday games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in six of their last seven night games following a home loss.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as underdogs after playing the previous day.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Carlos Santana has hit a home run in three of his last four home appearances against the Rays after playing the previous day.
• Carlos Santana has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven home appearances against the Rays after playing the previous day.
• Will Brennan has recorded at least one Double in each of his last three appearances with the Guardians as favorites against AL opponents.
• Jose Ramirez ranks 3rd in the league in Steals (36) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the last nine games between the Rays and Guardians have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Rays’ last eight games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.

Guardians vs Rays Prediction

I’m going to side with the Guardians here. Not always easy to back a team that’s been shut out in three straight games. However, that being said, Shane Baz is a disaster right now. He feels like one of those pitchers that can get your team out of whatever slump they might be in just because of how many runs he’s giving up on a game-to-game basis. Messick looked every bit as good as advertised in his debut, and I think this could be a good buy low spot on Cleveland here. Give me the Guardians in this one.