Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction 4/20/25 MLB Picks Today

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Chicago Cubs meet Sunday in MLB action from Wrigley Field. This will be the last installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Cubs vs Diamondbacks pick.

Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

Arizona and the Cubs already met up once this year in the first series of the 2025 campaign. The Diamondbacks posted a split in that four-game set with victories in two games. Arizona got more victories in two of three games against the New York Yankees in the ensuing set. The Diamondbacks would then lose two of three versus the Washington Nationals, then won two of three matchups against the Orioles. Arizona beat the Brewers twice in wild fashion over the weekend, then went on to sweep the Miami Marlins in three games this week. In Thursday’s 6-4 win, the Diamondbacks were out-hit 13-5 but still pulled it off. On Friday versus the Cubs, the Diamondbacks were down 7-1 by the end of the seventh inning but posted a whopping 10 runs in the eighth to storm back. Arizona would give up six in the bottom of that frame though, resulting in a 13-11 defeat. Eugenio Suarez (four RBI) and Lourdes Gurriel (three RBI; two runs; two hits) each had home runs. Corbin Burnes went 6.0 frames in the start with two earned on six hits.

In the Saturday game Arizona gave up all Chicago’s six runs in the first two innings during a loss 6-2. Starting pitcher Zac Gallen lasted 6.0 innings with six earned runs on seven hits and two walks.

As starter for Sunday it’ll be Merrill Kelly. So far over four starts Kelly is 3-1 with a 5.57 ERA across 21.0 innings. Kelly is 56-45 with a 3.86 ERA in 144 career starts at the MLB level.

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

Over on the Cubs’ side, they put up a sweep over the Oakland Athletics after their first set versus the Diamondbacks. Chicago would then post wins in two of three versus the San Diego Padres. The Cubbies would go on to win two of three games against both the Texas Rangers and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Cubs split their first two games versus the San Diego Padres this week before posting a finale loss 4-2 on Wednesday. In Friday’s matchup the Cubs would give up 15 hits but provided 18 hits (and three errors) themselves. Ian Happ (four RBI), Kyle Tucker (two RBI) and Seiya Suzuki (solo) each homered once, and Carson Kelly (five RBI) hit two home runs.

On Saturday in the victory, Chicago got two RBI and a home run from both Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch. Ben Brown logged 4.0 innings in the starting role, with one earned on three hits and four walks alongside six strikeouts.

It’ll be Jameson Taillon in the starting role for the Cubs on Sunday. This year Taillon is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA in four starts over 21.2 innings. Taillon is 72-54 with a 3.92 ERA in 205 career games (204 starts).

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won four of their last five games at Wrigley Field.
• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last three games at Wrigley Field.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the Cubs’ last five games.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games at Wrigley Field against teams that held a winning record.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight day games against National League opponents.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight games at Wrigley Field against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Diamondbacks have lost the first inning in each of their last three games as underdogs.

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Cubs have lost six of their last seven games as favorites against the Diamondbacks following a home win.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last eight Sunday games as underdogs.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games as favorites against the Diamondbacks following a home win.
• The Diamondbacks have won the first inning in three of their last four games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games as favorites.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Cubs’ last seven home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Fifteen of the Diamondbacks’ last 20 day games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Cubs’ last eight games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last five games as road underdogs.

Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction

I’m going to try the Cubs here. Taillon has been pitching pretty well so far this year, despite a mildly inflated ERA. In his last three outings combined, Taillon is 1-0 with seven earned runs combined across 17.1 innings total on 12 hits and five walks. As for Kelly, he posted a rough outing versus the Yankees on April 3 with 3.2 innings and nine earned on nine hits and three walks. Since then, however, Kelly has been cruising with three earned in 12.0 innings during a pair of victories. This should be a pretty fun starting pitcher matchup if both guys are on point.

Chicago got off to a stellar start Saturday but didn’t do much offensively after the second inning. The Cubs’ pitchers held it together well, though, and it turned into a nice win. I like Chicago to keep it up in the finale.