Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction 5/1/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Cubs vs Diamondbacks prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 1st at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 19-12 this season after they won two out of three against the Padres by scores of 7-9, 8-3, and 5-4. In game three, Chicago blew a 3-0 lead in the fifth inning, but they scored the next two runs and hung on for the close win. The Cubs recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Crow-Armstrong, who went 1-4 with one home run and three RBIs. Taillon allowed three hits and three earned runs over 7.0 innings for the win, while Milner picked up the one out save. Prior to that series, Chicago lost two out of three against the Dodgers, but did sweep the Phillies prior to that. 

This season, Chicago has a 4.01 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and a .229 opponent batting average, while they have scored 169 runs with a .261 batting average and a .353 on base percentage. Nico Hoerner has led the Cubs with four home runs and 26 RBIs, while Dansby Swanson has added six home runs and 23 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Colin Rea, who is 3-1 with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 27.1 innings pitched this season. 

Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 16-14 this year after they lost two out of three against the Brewers by scores of 2-13, 6-2, and 1-13. In game three, Arizona cut the deficit to 6-1 in the fourth inning, but they couldn’t find anymore scoring in the very ugly loss. The Diamondbacks recorded six hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Gurriel Jr, who went 2-4 with one RBI. Soroka allowed 10 hits and eight earned runs over 3.0 innings for the loss, while Abner allowed two earned runs in relief. Prior to that series, Arizona split a two game series with the Padres and lost two out of three against the White Sox. 

This season, Arizona has a 4.99 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and a .259 opponent batting average, while they have scored 141 runs with a .250 batting average and a .308 on base percentage. Ildemaro Vargas has led the Diamondbacks with six home runs and 20 RBIs, while Corbin Carroll has added four home runs and 18 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Arizona is Zac Gallen, who is 1-1 with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 28.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last eight home games.
• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last six day games against NL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last four home games.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four day games against NL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have lost the first inning in three of their last four games at Wrigley Field against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in eight of their last nine road games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last five games as home favorites against NL West opponents.

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against the Cubs following a loss.
• The Cubs have lost six of their last seven games as favorites against the Diamondbacks following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last seven games following a road loss.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine day games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five home games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Cubs’ last nine games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Diamondbacks’ last six games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cubs’ last four games as favorites against NL West opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Diamondbacks’ last six day games against NL Central opponents.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in each of the Cubs’ last three home games.
• Carson Kelly has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances after not playing the previous day.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Cubs after playing the previous day.
• Zac Gallen has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Ildemaro Vargas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 26 appearances.
• Zac Gallen has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances against the Cubs.
• Ildemaro Vargas ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.378) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for on-base percentage this season (.353).
• The Cubs rank 2nd in the league for walks this season (141).
• The Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for triples this season (10).
• The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for walks this season (81).

Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction 

Chicago comes into this matchup after getting a series win over the Padres and they have scored 5+ runs in three straight. The Cubs are 11-5 at home this year, while the Diamondbacks are 7-8 on the road. Arizona has alternated wins and losses over their last five games, but they have allowed 13 runs in two of their last three. The Diamondbacks are starting Gallen, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, while Rea has allowed 6, 1, and 3 earned runs in his last three outings. I know the wind is blowing in, but I don’t like this pitching matchup. Take the over here.