Cubs vs Padres Prediction 4/5/25 MLB Picks Today

The San Diego Padres and the Chicago Cubs meet on Saturday in MLB action from Wrigley Field. This will be the second installment in a three-game weekend series. Here’s a Cubs vs Padres prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Cubs vs Padres pick.

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The Padres kicked off their 2025 season with a matchup against the Atlanta Braves. San Diego won all four of those games in a sweep, taking victories 7-4, 4-3, 1-0, and 5-0. San Diego kept it going with another sweep in their next set, this time against the Cleveland Guardians. The Padres won those matchups 7-2, 7-0, and 5-2. In the Wednesday victory, San Diego scored four runs in the third inning on the way to 10 team hits. Both Luis Arraez (two runs; two hits) and Jackson Merrill (two hits; two RBI) had home runs. Starter Dylan Cease lasted 6.1 frames with one earned on four hits and one walk alongside seven Ks.

In their opener versus the Cubs on Friday, the Padres out-hit Chicago 6-3 but still ended up losing in a tough result 3-1. Fernando Tatis and Jackson Merrill had two hits apiece, and Martin Maldonado had the lone RBI with a solo homer. Starting pitcher Randy Vasquez pitched 4.2 innings with two earned, two hits, five walks, and two Ks.

For the game two starting pitcher role, the Padres will send out Nick Pivetta. This year, Pivetta has one start under his belt, going a clean 7.0 innings in a victory. Over his MLB career, Pivetta is 57-71 with a 4.72 ERA in 224 games (179 starts).

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

Over on the Cubs’ side, they played a couple of games versus the Dodgers in Japan (both losses) early this month, then managed to split a four-game series versus the Arizona Diamondbacks at the beginning of the season proper. Chicago got on track with this week’s series versus the Oakland Athletics, though. The Cubs won all three of those games with a big offensive performance in each: 18-3, 7-4, and 10-2. In the Wednesday finale victory, Chicago got two home runs, three hits, and five RBI from Seiya Suzuki. Jameson Taillon went 6.0 innings in the start with two earned on four hits and three walks.

In Friday’s victory over the Padres, Chicago got one RBI apiece from Justin Turner and Nico Horner. Ian Happ went 2-for-4 and scored two runs. Shota Imanaga had a nice outing himself with 7.1 frames, one earned run, four hits, no walks, and four strikeouts.

It’ll be Matthew Boyd in the starting pitcher slot for the Cubbies on Saturday. Boyd bagged a no-decision in his first start of the year despite pitching well on 5.0 clean frames. Boyd has a 46-69 career record with a 4.82 ERA in 183 games (169 starts).

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The home team has won each of the Padres’ last nine games.
• The Padres have lost four of their last five road games.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the Padres’ last six games.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line each of their last four games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in four of their last five games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last six games.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last nine games against the Cubs following a loss.
• The Cubs have lost eight of their last nine games against the Padres following a win.
• The Padres have covered the run line each of their last 10 Saturday day games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 day games against the Padres at Wrigley Field following a home win.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs’ last six games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Padres’ last seven day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Cubs’ last nine games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Padres’ last seven games against NL Central opponents.

Cubs vs Padres Prediction

I’m going to stay with the Padres. We should have a pretty fun pitching matchup here if both guys are on, though. Pivetta was great in his first start versus the Braves on March 30, going 7.0 innings with no earned runs, one hit, no walks, and four Ks. As for Boyd, he lasted 5.0 clean innings against the Diamondbacks in his March 30 start, giving up four hits and three walks with five strikeouts.

San Diego only had one rough inning in their Friday loss, but that was enough to lose by two runs. After Vasquez exited following his 4.2 innings, the bullpen followed up with 3.1 frames, one hit, no earned, two walks, and three strikeouts between three different arms. All in all it was a pretty “blah” day all around, and most of the lineup came up empty—more so if you remove Tatis and Merrill from the equation. That said, I think the Padres can bounce back and even things up on Saturday.