Cubs vs Phillies Prediction 4/20/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Cubs vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Monday, April 20th at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 12-9 this season after they swept the Mets in three games by scores of 12-4, 4-2, and 2-1. In game three, Chicago trailed 1-0 late in the game, but they tied the game in the ninth and won in the 10th. The Cubs recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Hoerner and Conforto, who both had one RBI. Assad allowed three hits and one earned run over 5.2 innings, while Thielbar picked up the win in relief. Prior to that series, Chicago won two out of three against the Phillies, but lost two out of three against the Pirates before that. 

This season, Chicago has a 3.59 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and a .227 opponent batting average, while they have scored 112 runs with a .251 batting average and a .341 on base percentage. Nico Hoerner has led the Cubs with three home runs and 21 RBIs, while Dansby Swanson has added four home runs and 12 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Colin Rea, who is 2-0 with a 3.63 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP over 17.1 innings pitched this season. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 8-13 this year after they lost all three against the Braves by scores of 0-9, 1-3, and 2-4. In game three, Philadelphia led 2-0 in the first inning, but they couldn’t find anymore offense in the disappointing loss. The Phillies recorded six hits in the game and they were led by Schwarber, who went 2-4 with one home run and two RBIs. Painter allowed five hits and three earned runs over 4.0 innings for the loss, while Mayza allowed one earned run in relief. Prior to that series, Philadelphia lost two out of three against the Cubs and two out of three against the Diamondbacks. 

This season, Philadelphia has a 4.84 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and a .275 opponent batting average, while they have scored 75 runs with a .222 batting average and a .302 on base percentage. Kyle Schwarber has led the Phillies with seven home runs and 14 RBIs, while Bryce Harper has added four home runs and 11 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Aaron Nola, who is 1-1 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 22.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Phillies have lost each of their last five games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have won each of their last seven games after going to extra innings.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line each of their last nine games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in 11 of their last 13 games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games.
• The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six road games against opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last seven road games following a home loss.
• The Cubs have lost each of their last seven games as underdogs against NL East opponents following a home win.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last eight road games following a home loss.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 home games against NL East opponents following a home win.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in three of their last four games against the Cubs.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 12 games as underdogs against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs’ last six night games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Phillies’ last six road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Cubs’ last nine games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Phillies’ last 13 games as road favorites.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Ian Happ has hit a home run in four of the Cubs’ last five home games against NL East opponents.
• Ian Happ has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last 10 home games against NL East opponents.
• Nico Hoerner ranks T7th in the league in Hits (27) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in five of his last 10 appearances with the Phillies as favorites against the Cubs.
• Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in nine of his last 10 road appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Bryson Stott has recorded a hit in each of his last six appearances.
• Aaron Nola has recorded a win in six of his last eight appearances with the Phillies as favorites against the Cubs.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks T6th in the league in Home Runs (7) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank T3rd in the league for hits allowed this season (155).
• The Cubs are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
• The Phillies rank 30th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.275).
• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (59).

Cubs vs Phillies Prediction 

Chicago comes into this matchup on a long winning streak and they have allowed two runs or fewer in three of their last four games. The Cubs are 7-5 at home this year, while the Phillies are 3-3 on the road. Philadelphia has lost five in a row and they have scored a total of five runs in their last four games. The Phillies are starting Nola, who has allowed three earned runs in three of his four starts, while Rea has allowed 3, 1, 1, and 2 earned runs in his four outings. These teams are trending in opposite directions, but I think Nola can offer some stability, so I like the Phillies here.