Cubs vs Reds Prediction 5/4/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Cubs vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Monday, May 4th at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 22-12 this season after they swept the Diamondbacks in three games by scores of 6-5, 2-0, and 8-4. In game three, Chicago trailed 2-0 in the second inning, but they scored eight straight runs and cruised to the win. The Cubs recorded 12 hits in the game and they were led by Busch, who went 2-3 with four RBIs. Boyd allowed four hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Martin allowed two earned runs in relief. Prior to that series, Chicago won two out of three against the Padres, but lost two out of three against the Dodgers before that. 

This season, Chicago has a 3.89 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and a .227 opponent batting average, while they have scored 185 runs with a .261 batting average and a .353 on base percentage. Nico Hoerner has led the Cubs with four home runs and 26 RBIs, while Dansby Swanson has added six home runs and 24 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Edward Cabrera, who is 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 35.1 innings pitched this season. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 20-14 this year after they were swept by the Pirates by scores of 1-9, 7-17, and 0-1. In game three, Cincinnati had a few chances to score, but couldn’t find any runs for the loss. The Reds recorded four hits in the game and they were led by Bleday, who went 1-2 with one walk. Burns allowed three hits and zero earned runs over 7.0 innings, while Santillan allowed one earned run for the loss. Prior to that series, Cincinnati won two out of three against the Rockies and two out of three against the Tigers. 

This season, Cincinnati has a 4.50 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and a .255 opponent batting average, while they have scored 141 runs with a .217 batting average and a .304 on base percentage. Sal Stewart has led the Reds with nine home runs and 29 RBIs, while Elly De La Cruz has added 10 home runs and 25 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Chase Petty, who is making his first appearance of the year. 

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Cubs have won each of their last 11 home games.
• The Reds have lost each of their last five games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last seven games following a home win.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in each of their last six games.
• The Reds have lost the first inning in four of their last five games.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven home games.

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Cubs have lost each of their last six Monday games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have won three of their last four games as underdogs against the Cubs.
• The Reds have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Monday games.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in three of their last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Reds have won the first inning in three of their last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Reds’ last nine games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eight of the last nine games between the Reds and Cubs at Wrigley Field have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Reds’ last 12 games at Wrigley Field.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the last nine games between the Reds and Cubs.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Dansby Swanson has hit a home run in three of the Cubs’ last four games as favorites against the Reds.
• Edward Cabrera has recorded six or more strikeouts in nine of his last 12 appearances in night games.
• Ian Happ has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 Monday appearances at Wrigley Field.
• Edward Cabrera has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Spencer Steer has hit at least one home run in two of the Reds’ last three games against the Cubs.
• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 13 games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T8th in the league in Home Runs (10) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for on-base percentage this season (.353).
• The Cubs rank T1st in the league for walks this season (155).
• The Reds rank 30th in the league for hits this season (244).
• The Reds rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.217).

Cubs vs Reds Prediction 

Chicago comes into this matchup on a five game winning streak and they have scored 5+ runs in four of those five wins. The Cubs are 14-5 at home this year, while the Reds are 10-6 on the road. Cincinnati has lost four of their last five games and they have scored two runs or fewer in three of those five. Chicago is starting Cabrera, who has allowed three earned runs in four straight starts and with the wind blowing out + the Cincinnati bullpen struggling, I like the over here.