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Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Prediction 5-12-24 Picks

Houston Astros (14-24) vs. Detroit Tigers (19-19)
May 12, 2024 1:40 pm EDT
The Line: Detroit Tigers -106 / Houston Astros -111; Over/Under: +7.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Houston Astros and the Detroit Tigers meet Sunday in MLB action from Comerica Park. Here’s a Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros prediction. This will be the final installment in a three-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game.

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Astros played three games versus the New York Yankees this week. Houston took sizable losses 10-3 and 9-4 in the first two games of that set, but staved off the sweep with a 4-3 Thursday win. After a 5-2 win over the Tigers Friday, in game two Houston was out-hit 11-8 in an 8-2 loss. Starting pitcher Cristian Javier went just 1.1 innings with seven earned runs on five hits and four walks.

In the starting pitcher role for the Astros on Sunday it’ll be veteran Justin Verlander. So far this year Verlander is 1-1 with a 4.43 ERA and 15 Ks in 22.1 innings over four starts. Verlander has a career record of 258-142 with a 3.25 ERA in 513 starts.

Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

Over on the Tigers’ side, they played the Cleveland Guardians in their last series. Detroit managed an 11-7 win in game two of that set, but otherwise lost 2-1 and 5-4 to drop the series. On Saturday the Tigers scored seven of their eight runs in the second inning alone. Tarik Skubal lasted 6.1 frames with two earned runs on seven hits and two walks in the starting role.

It’ll be Jack Flaherty in the starting pitcher role for the Tigers on Sunday. This year so far Flaherty is 0-2 with a 3.86 ERA in seven starts. He’s got 56 Ks in 42.0 innings. Flaherty is 42-36 with a 3.75 ERA in 138 career games (132 starts).

Astros vs Tigers Injury Notes

Astros SP Jose Urquidy (forearm) is scheduled to begin his rehab assignment with Triple-A Sugar Land on Sunday.

Why the Detroit Tigers will win

  • The Astros have lost four of their last five games as road favorites against American League opponents.
  • The Tigers have won seven of their last eight Sunday day games as home underdogs against AL West opponents.
  • The Tigers have covered the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs following a win.
  • The Astros have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last 10 road games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six games as favorites against American League opponents.
  • The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five games as favorites against American League opponents.

Why the Houston Astros will win

  • The Tigers have lost each of their last nine home games against AL West opponents following a win.
  • The Astros have won each of their last seven Sunday road games against American League opponents.
  • The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine home games against AL West opponents following a win.
  • The favorites have covered the run line in each of the last four games between the Astros and Tigers.
  • The Tigers have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three day games against American League opponents.
  • The Astros have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against the Tigers.

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Prediction

I’ll lean toward the Astros here. Verlander got into trouble during his last start versus the Yankees on May 7. He ended up surrendering seven earned runs on eight hits and three walks in 5.0 innings during a loss. Verlander had just two earned in his previous 11.1 innings, though. As for Flaherty, he’s given up just two earned runs over his last two starts in 12.2 innings total.

On Saturday the Astros had a miserable second inning but overall they didn’t play too badly otherwise. Houston got at least one hit from all but one batter (Zach McKinstry) and everyone got on base. There wasn’t much happening on the scoreboard, though. Houston needs to change that in the finale.

Andrew's Free Pick: Houston Astros -111

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Andrew

Andrew has been writing about college, professional and fantasy sports betting since 2013. Andrew's goal is to break down the complicated numbers and trends into a language that's easily accessible to novice sports bettors and seasoned professionals alike.

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