Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction 7/10/25 MLB Picks Today

The Arizona Diamondbacks are visiting the San Diego Padres on Thursday, July 11^th at the PETCO Park in the fourth game of this series, with the Diamondbacks leading 2-1. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction. We will examine:

The San Diego Padres’ recent form and player performance

The Arizona Diamondbacks’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the San Diego Padres

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Arizona Diamondbacks

Recent betting trends in games played between the Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres game

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 49-43 record this season and are sitting in third place in the NL West. They have a 28-17 home record and are 38-51 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 2-8 home defeat by the Dbacks, and are playing the Phillies and the Nationals next.

The Padres have a .244 batting average this season, a .313 OBP, and a .371 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.69 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.  Manny Machado leads the Padres with 101 hits, adding a team-high 53 RBI and a team-high 15 home runs. Luis Arraez is the team’s best hitter with a .289 batting average

Randy Vasquez (R) will take the mound for the Padres, and he has a 3-4 record, 3.79 ERA, and 1.36 WHIP.

Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 46-47 record this season and are sitting in 4^th place in the NL West. The Diamondbacks have a 23-22 road record and are 48-40 in over/under. They are coming off an 8-2 road victory over the Padres, and Over is 9-3 in their last 12 games. They are playing the Cardinals and the Angels next.

The Diamondbacks have a .251 batting average this season, a .328 OBP, and a .445 slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.61 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Josh Naylor leads the Diamondbacks with 93 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .296 batting average. Eugenio Suarez leads the team in RBI, with 75, and in home runs with 29.

Eduardo Rodriguez (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, and he has a 3-5 record, 5.78 ERA, and 1.62 WHIP.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last nine home games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have lost five of their last six games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Diamondbacks’ last seven games at Petco Park.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites against the Padres following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games as favorites.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last five games as home underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Padres have won the first inning in each of their last five Thursday games as home underdogs.

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Padres have lost five of their last six night games against National League opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have won four of their last five games at Petco Park.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight night games against National League opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last seven night games following a road win.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Thursday night games as road favorites.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in nine of their last 12 games as road favorites against NL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the last nine games between the Diamondbacks and Padres at Petco Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Diamondbacks’ last five games as favorites against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Padres’ last eight home games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Diamondbacks’ last six games as road favorites.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank T2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (649).
• The Padres rank 3rd in the league for hits allowed this season (698).
• The Diamondbacks rank 2nd in the league for triples this season (20).
• The Diamondbacks rank T3rd in the league for home runs this season (137).

Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction

The Diamondbacks are 5-2 in their last 7 overall meetings against the Padres, and are 4-2 in their 6 meetings this season. The Dbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in San Diego, and over is 4-1 in their last 5 meetings.

In this Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction, the Diamondbacks are coming as -120 road favorites. The Padres have a slightly better overall record and have been very strong at home, while the D-backs are mediocre on the road. Rodriguez has been terrible for the Dbacks, and he was shelled in his previous start, while Vasquez for the Padres is due for some negative regression, as he has a 5.78 expected ERA. Arizona has the 4^th-worst bullpen in the league, but the 4^th-best offense, and is even better against righties, averaging 5.4 runs per game. Two of the three games of this series had 9+ runs, and I expect another high-scoring outing tonight. Take the over 8.5 runs.