Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction 9/26/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for this MLB matchup on Saturday, September 26^th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have an 89-71 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL West. They have a 49-30 home record and are coming off a 4-11 home loss against the Diamondbacks.

The San Diego Padres have a .243 batting average this season, .318 OBP and .397 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.97 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the team’s best hitter with a .291 batting average. Manny Machado leads the team in RBI with 87, adding a team-high 29 home runs.

Walker Buehler (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has a 9-6 record, 4.56 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.

Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 86-74 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL West. They have a 41-38 away record and are coming off an 11-4 road win against the Padres.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a .246 batting average this season, .318 OBP and .403 Slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.10 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Gabriel Moreno is the team’s best hitter with a .311 batting average. Nolan Arenado leads the team in RBI with 85, adding a team-high 30 home runs.

The Diamondbacks have not yet announced a starting pitcher for this game.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: September 26, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Walker Buehler      Record this season: 9-6      ERA: 4.56
• Home Record: 5-3
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 3-1

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last eight games against the Diamondbacks following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have lost five of their last six night games at Petco Park following a win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games as favorites against NL West opponents following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games at Petco Park against teams that held a winning record.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as favorites against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight games as favorites against NL West opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: TBD

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Padres have lost five of their last six home games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in 15 of their last 16 games as road underdogs against NL West opponents following a win.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five home games against NL West opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have won the first inning in each of their last five games.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in each of their last six games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Padres’ last six home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Diamondbacks’ last four games as road underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Padres’ last eight games as favorites against NL West opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Diamondbacks’ last eight night games against NL West opponents.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit a home run in each of the Padres’ last two games as favorites.
• Walker Buehler has recorded a win in six of his last eight appearances against the Diamondbacks.
• Walker Buehler has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last seven home appearances against the Diamondbacks.
• Jackson Merrill has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last 11 games as favorites.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks 3rd in the league in Hits (181) this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Nolan Arenado has hit a home run in four of the Diamondbacks’ last five games.
• Nolan Arenado has recorded at least one hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last 11 games.
• Gabriel Moreno ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.311) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank T3rd in the league for steals this season (162).
• The Padres rank T23rd in the league for doubles this season (231).
• The Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for triples this season (42).
• The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for strikeouts this season (1125).

Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction

The Diamondbacks are 4-2 in their last 6 meetings against the Padres and have won their last two visits in San Diego.

In this Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -120 home favorites. The Dbacks have been red-hot as they are trying to overcome the Phillies for the final wild card place of the NL, having won six straight and have scored 23 total runs in their last two. They have a better offense and a better bullpen ERA in their last 10 games and I don’t think Walker Buehler will be the one to stop the red-hot Dbacks train, as he had given up 7 runs in his previous home start against them this season. Take the Dbacks to win on the road for plus money.