Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction 7/28/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, July 28^th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 55-52 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL Central. They have a 29-26 home record and are coming off a 3-2 home win against the Diamondbacks. They will face the Reds and the Brewers next.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a .260 batting average this season, .337 OBP and .421 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 4.30 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Nick Gonzales is the team’s best hitter with a .315 batting average. Ryan O’Hearn leads the team in RBI with 68, while Brandon Lowe adds a team-high 21 home runs.

Bubba Chandler (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he has a 3-8 record, 4.47 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.

Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 55-52 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL West. They have a 24-30 away record and are coming off a 2-3 road loss against the Pirates. They will face the Guardians and the Padres next.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a .241 batting average this season, .313 OBP and .393 Slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.23 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Ildemaro Vargas is the team’s best hitter with a .272 batting average. Ketel Marte leads the team in RBI with 61, adding a team-high 19 home runs.

Brandon Pfaadt (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he has a 5-1 record, 4.43 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends: July 28, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Bubba Chandler      Record this season: 3-8      ERA: 4.47
• Home Record: 2-3
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 0-1

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won five of their last six games against the Diamondbacks.
• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last three games.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in 20 of their last 26 games after playing the previous day after going to extra innings.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four games.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in 10 of their last 12 games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last five Tuesday home games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt      Record this season: 5-1      ERA: 4.43
• Road Record: 3-1
• Last 5 against Pirates: 1-0

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last eight games following an extra innings win.
• The Diamondbacks have won four of their last five games as underdogs after going to extra innings.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last eight night games against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven night games against NL West opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five night games against NL West opponents.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games against NL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last four games between the Diamondbacks and Pirates at PNC Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Diamondbacks’ last four games following an extra innings loss have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Pirates’ last six games.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in nine of Brandon Pfaadt’s last 10 road appearances as a starter.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Ryan O’Hearn has hit a home run in three of the Pirates’ last four games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
• Bubba Chandler has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his seven previous home appearances against the Diamondbacks.
• Nick Gonzales ranks 4th in the league in Hits (120) this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Max Kepler has hit a home run in three of his last four Tuesday appearances against teams that held a winning record.
• Brandon Pfaadt has recorded a win in each of his last five appearances.
• Ildemaro Vargas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances.
• Corbin Carroll is one of only eight players to record 10+ Home Runs and 4+ Triples this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (966).
• The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (966).
• The Diamondbacks rank 30th in the league for strikeouts this season (723).
• The Diamondbacks rank 30th in the league for strikeouts this season (723).

Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction

The Pirates are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings against the Diamondbacks and have won their last three meetings in Pittsburgh.

In this Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction, the Pirates are coming as -120 home favorites. I like the Dbacks in a bounce-back spot today with Brandon Pfaadt, who seems to have turned things around after a slow start to the season and a disastrous last season. He has been better on the road, while Bubba Chandler has been weaker at home for the Pirates and the Dbacks have been red-hot offensively lately, averaging 6.3 runs per game against righties in their last 10 games. Take the Dbacks to win this one on the road.