Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Prediction 9/5/25 MLB Picks Today

The Boston Red Sox and Arizona Diamondbacks meet Friday in MLB action at Chase Field. Here’s a Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Prediction. This article will include a Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Pick.

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 78-63 on the year and play the Athletics, Yankees, and Athletics next. The Boston Red Sox are batting .254 on the season, have a .325 OBP, and a .426 slugging percentage. The Boston Red Sox pitching staff has a 3.73 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Jarren Duran leads the Boston Red Sox with 140 hits and 77 RBI, while Trevor Story and Ceddanne Rafaela have combined for 155 hits and 148 RBI.

Payton Tolle gets the ball for the Boston Red Sox, and he is 0-0 with a 3.38 ERA and 8 strikeouts this season. This will be Tolle’s first career game against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 70-71 on the year and play the Giants, Twins, and Giants next. The Arizona Diamondbacks are batting .249 on the season, have a .322 OBP, and a .436 slugging percentage. The Arizona Diamondbacks pitching staff has a 4.45 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Geraldo Perdomo leads the Arizona Diamondbacks with 146 hits and 88 RBI, while Corbin Carroll and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have combined for 251 hits and 151 RBI.

Eduardo Rodriguez gets the ball for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he is 6-8 with a 5.40 ERA and 120 strikeouts this season. Rodriguez is 0-2 with a 8.31 ERA and 13 strikeouts in his career against the Boston Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox @ Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Trends: September 5, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Eduardo Rodriguez      Record this season: 6-8      ERA: 5.40
• Home Record: 1-2
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 0-2

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won five of their last six games as underdogs.
• The Red Sox have lost eight of their last nine Friday night games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in 17 of their last 18 games as underdogs following a win.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Friday night games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have won the first inning in five of their last six home games.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in five of their last six home games.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games as home underdogs.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Payton Tolle      Record this season: 0-0      ERA: 3.38
• Road Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: –

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last six road games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last eight games as underdogs against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against NL West opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as home underdogs against American League opponents following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have lost the first inning in four of their last five games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in each of their last four road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in each of their last four road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Diamondbacks’ last five games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Red Sox’s last four road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Diamondbacks’ last nine night games against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last six Friday games.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Corbin Carroll has hit at least one home run in three of the Diamondbacks’ last five home games against AL East opponents.
• Eduardo Rodriguez has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances with his team as a home underdog against AL East opponents.
• Corbin Carroll has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against AL East opponents.
• Ketel Marte ranks 4th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.390) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Jarren Duran has hit a home run in three of the Red Sox’s last four games against NL West opponents that held a losing record.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded a Double in each of the Red Sox’s last three road games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Triston Casas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Diamondbacks rank 2nd in the league for triples this season (34).
• The Diamondbacks rank 2nd in the league for slugging percentage this season (.436).
• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (283).
• The Red Sox rank 3rd in the league for hits this season (1231).

Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Prediction

I’m not excited to get behind Tolle, a pitcher with just 5.1 MLB innings under his belt and will pitch on the road for the first time. However, the Red Sox are not only the better team with something to play for, but the Diamondbacks aren’t attractive at all, especially with Rodriguez and his 5.40 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. In 55.1 home innings, Rodriguez has a 5.69 ERA and .283 allowed batting average. The Red Sox should have a field day offensively in this contest. Give me the road team with the rookie pitcher.