Guardians vs Phillies Prediction 5/11/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Guardians vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, May 11, at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies (23-16, 10-10 Away) won the previous four series, as they beat the Cubs, Nationals, Diamondbacks, and Rays. After a 6-0 defeat in the opener of the current series against the Guardians, the Phillies responded with a 7-1 victory in Game 2. Bryce Harper and Max Kepler led the team with two RBI apiece, while Ranger Suarez got the win after allowing no runs on three hits with five strikeouts and one walk across 7.0 innings of work.

This year, the Phillies average 4.82 runs per game (10th in the MLB) on a .259/.338/.403 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Phillies’ staff has a 3.86 ERA (13th) and 1.26 WHIP (16th). Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with a .262 batting average, 12 home runs, and 29 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Phillies is Zack Wheeler, who is 3-1 in eight starts this season, with a 3.35 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 51.0 innings.

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians (23-16, 12-6 Home) won eight of the last 11 games and won the series against the Twins, Blue Jays, and Nationals. The Guardians opened this series against Philly on a high note with a 6-0 win, but then lost the following one, 7-1. Tanner Bibee took the loss after allowing one run on five hits with three strikeouts and no walks in 7.0 innings.

This season, the Guardians average 4.21 runs per game (18th in the MLB) on a .237/.310/.388 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Guardians’ staff has a 4.26 ERA (21st) and 1.43 WHIP (25th). Kyle Manzardo leads the Guardians with a .214 batting average, nine home runs, and 22 RBI this season.

Luis Ortiz will take the mound for the Guardians on Sunday. The 26-year-old right-hander has a 2-3 record in seven starts this year with a 5.30 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 37.1 innings.

Why the Phillies will beat the Guardians

• The Phillies have won nine of their last 10 games against American League opponents.
• The Guardians have lost five of their last six home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five night games at Progressive Field following a home loss.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in six of their last eight games as road favorites against American League opponents.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in three of their last four road games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Four of the Guardians’ last five home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Twelve of the Phillies’ last 16 road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last six games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last five games as road favorites against AL Central opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Guardians rank 25th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.262).
• The Guardians rank 24th in the league for hits this season (301).
• The Phillies rank 4th in the league for walks allowed this season (113).
• The Phillies are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.

Guardians vs Phillies Prediction

The Guardians won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including four of the last six. I am going with the Phillies in this one because Luis Ortiz allowed multiple runs in three of his last four starts, including the most recent against Washington when he surrendered five earned runs. and six in total. Wheeler, on the other hand, allowed two runs in each of his previous four starts, and I doubt he will allow more than that on Sunday. This is Philadelphia’s advantage, and I am backing the visitors to win.