Guardians vs Royals Prediction 9/9/25 MLB Picks Today

The Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals meet on Tuesday in MLB action from Progressive Field. Here’s a Guardians vs Royals prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Guardians vs Royals pick.

Royals Are Falling Apart

The Royals are still in the Wild Card race, but they have lost two games in a row, and this is almost a must-win at this point of the season. On Monday, the pitching was awful, giving up ten runs, and that ended up leading to the defeat. Ryan Bergert was on the mound and he went 3.1 innings, giving up 11 hits and eight runs. 

The Royals are averaging 3.85 runs while their pitching is giving up 3.86 runs per game. The offense is ranked 28th while the pitching is ranked 2nd. Vinnie Pasquantino has hit 29 home runs and driven in 99 RBIs. Getting the start for the Royals in this game will be Noah Cameron, who sits with a 7-6 record and an ERA of 3.03. In his last start against the Angels, he went five innings giving up five hits and three runs. 

Why the Royals Will Beat the Guardians

• The Guardians have lost each of their last three games as home favorites following a home win.
• The Royals have won seven of their last nine games as road underdogs following a road loss.
• The Royals have covered the run line in 14 of their last 16 games as road underdogs following a road loss.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as home favorites following a home win.

Guardians’ Offense Looked Good

The Guardians’ offense sure looked impressive on Monday putting up 10 runs on the way to the victory. It was a big 4th inning where they put up six runs and the offense finished the game with 16 hits. The most impressive part of the game was there were zero runs that came off the long ball. Daniel Schneeman had a huge game finishing with 

The Guardians are averaging 3.88 runs while their pitching is giving up 4.23 runs per game. The offense is ranked 27th while the pitching is ranked 12th. They have a negative run differential of 0.338. Getting the start for the Guardians will be Joey Cantillo who sits with a 4-3 record and an ERA of 3.73. Against the Red Sox in his last start he went five innings giving up five hits and one run. 

Why the Guardians Will Beat the Royals

• The Guardians have won each of their last five night games against AL Central opponents.
• The Royals have lost four of their last five games at Progressive Field.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in 15 of their last 17 night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Royals have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games.
• The Royals have trailed after 3 innings in eight of their last 10 games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Royals have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games against opponents that held a winning record.

Guardians vs Royals Prediction

In this game we have two offenses that have had issues most of the season, and two pitchers that have looked pretty good heading into this game. Cantillo in his last start gave up only one run in five innings in his last start, and he’s going to have another strong start again here. Cameron’s record might not be great, but he has been solid sitting with an ERA of 3.03. Neither offense is going to score more than three runs, and this game is going to end up under the total. This is one of my favorite plays on the board.