Guardians vs Tigers Prediction 10/2/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Guardians vs Tigers prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, October 2nd at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB Wild Card matchup. 

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are tied 1-1 in this series after they won game two by a score of 6-1 on Wednesday afternoon. Cleveland was tied at one in the late innings, but they managed five runs in the eighth for the victory. The Guardians recorded six hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Naylor, who went 1-4 with one home run and three RBIs in the win. Cleveland started Bibee, who allowed five hits and one earned run over 4.2 innings, while Smith picked up the win in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Guardians won two out of three against the Rangers and two out of three against the Tigers. Cleveland has won 15 of their last 19 games and they won the AL Central by one game over Detroit. The Cleveland pitching staff had a 3.70 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .238 opponent batting average, while the offense scored 643 runs with a .226 batting average and a .296 on base percentage in the regular season. Jose Ramirez led Cleveland with 30 home runs and 85 RBIs, while Kyle Manzardo added 27 home runs and 70 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Slade Cecconi, who is 7-7 with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 132.0 innings pitched this season. 

Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers had a great chance to eliminate Cleveland on Wednesday, but they lost the game and are now tied 1-1 in the series. Detroit had a ton of baserunners in this game, but they were awful at the plate with runners in scoring position and the bullpen fell apart in the eighth for the loss. The Tigers recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Baez, who went 2-4 with one RBI in the loss. Detroit started Mize, who allowed one hit and one earned run over 3.0 innings, while Melton allowed four earned runs and picked up the loss in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Tigers lost two out of three against the Red Sox and two out of three against the Guardians. Detroit has lost 11 of their last 13 games and they finished second in the AL Central standings. The Detroit pitching staff had a 3.95 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .241 opponent batting average, while the offense scored 758 runs with a .247 batting average and a .316 on base percentage in the regular season. Riley Greene led Detroit with 36 home runs and 111 RBIs, while Spencer Torkelson added 31 home runs and 78 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Detroit is Jack Flaherty, who is 8-15 with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 161.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Guardians will beat the Tigers

• The Guardians have won six of their last seven day games after playing the previous day.
• The Tigers have lost five of their last six road playoff games after playing the previous day.
• The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against AL Central opponents.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Tigers.
• The Tigers have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six day games.
• The Guardians have won the first inning in four of their last five day games.

Why the Tigers will beat the Guardians

• The Tigers have won 17 of their last 18 day games against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The Guardians have lost each of their last six playoff games following a home win.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games as home favorites against the Tigers following a win.
• The Tigers have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as road underdogs against AL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Guardians have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five Thursday games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Tigers’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Guardians’ last six day games against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last six games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Tigers’ last five games as underdogs against AL Central opponents.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Brayan Rocchio has hit a home run in each of the Guardians’ last two games as favorites.
• Lane Thomas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last six appearances with his team as a favorite against the Tigers.
• Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one Double in four of the Guardians’ last five games as home favorites against the Tigers.
• Jose Ramirez ranks T2nd in the league in Steals (44) this season.

Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts

• Riley Greene has hit a home run in three of the Tigers’ last six road games against the Guardians.
• Jack Flaherty has recorded six or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Javier Baez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 appearances with the Tigers as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Jack Flaherty has recorded a win in each of his last five Thursday appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Jake Rogers has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against AL Central opponents.
• Riley Greene ranks T10th in the league in Home Runs (36) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Guardians rank 30th in the league for hits this season (1199).
• The Guardians rank 29th in the league for batting average this season (.226).
• The Tigers rank 30th in the league for steals this season (61).
• The Tigers rank 3rd in the league for triples this season (36).

Guardians vs Tigers Prediction 

Detroit was able to get a low scoring win to start this series in game one, but their offense continued to fail them in game two, so they find themselves in a winner take all game three here. The Tigers have really struggled over the last month, as they have one of the worst records in the MLB in that span, but they are starting Flaherty, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in two of his last three outings. Cleveland is going with Cecconi, who has allowed 4, 0, 2, 0, and 7 earned runs in his last five starts. I really don’t love this pitching matchup and I think Detroit will finally find some timely offense, so give me the over once again here.