Astros vs Orioles Prediction 8/16/25 MLB Picks Today

The Baltimore Orioles and the Houston Astros meet Saturday in MLB action from Daikin Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Astros vs Orioles Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Baltimore Orioles will send out Rico Garcia as the opener and Garcia is 0-0 with a 3.71 ERA and 19 strikeouts this season. Jason Alexander will get the start for the Astros here and is 3-1 with a 5.02 ERA and 29 strikeouts this season. This will be Alexander’s first career start against the Orioles.

Baltimore Orioles Recap

The Baltimore Orioles come into this game looking to add on to their 7-0 win over the Astros on Friday to sit at 56-66 on the year. After this series, the Orioles will head on the road for a series against the Boston Red Sox.

Orioles Win 3 In A Row

Adley Rutschman has 68 hits with 16 doubles, 9 homers and 27 RBIs. Jackson Holliday has 111 hits with 16 doubles, 2 triples, 14 homers and 45 RBIs. Gunnar Henderson has 121 hits with 29 doubles, 4 triples, 14 home runs and 51 RBIs with 16 stolen bases and 106 strikeouts while Holliday has a team-high 111 strikeouts as well this season. Heston Kjerstad’s added 4 homers and 19 RBIs while Jordan Westburg has 14 home runs and 29 RBIs this season.

Houston Astros Recap

The Houston Astros come into this game looking to rebound from their loss at the hands of the Orioles on Friday to sit at 68-54 this season. After this series, the Astros will head out on the road for a set against the Detroit Tigers.

Astros Looking To Rebound

Jose Altuve has 127 hits including 18 doubles, 21 home runs and 63 RBIs. Jeremy Pena also has 115 hits with 20 doubles, 13 homers and 45 RBIs with 17 stolen bases as well. Jake Meyers has 15 doubles as well and Christian Walker has 16 home runs and 65 RBIs but has also accrued a team-high 127 strikeouts so far this season. Altuve also has 8 stolen bases while Jake Meyers has 14 stolen bases this season. Isaac Paredes also has 19 home runs with 50 RBIs of his own and Cam Smith has contributed 7 homers and 48 RBIs.

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won each of their last eight night games against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Orioles have lost six of their last seven road games against American League opponents following a road win.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night games against American League opponents following a road win.
• The Astros have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against AL East opponents following a loss.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one Double in each of his last three home appearances against the Orioles.
• Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances against AL East opponents.
• Yainer Diaz has hit a home run in three of the Astros’ last four games as home favorites.
• Jeremy Pena ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.318) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Orioles’ last six games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Astros’ last six night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.

Astros vs Orioles Prediction

I’m on the Astros in this one. I just think that this is still a spot where the Orioles struggle, facing a right-handed pitcher in Alexander, who has actually pitched well in a couple of his recent starts. The Orioles are a solid lineup on paper, but they haven’t been delivering against righties and got the benefit of the doubt with their win over the Astros on Friday. Brandon Young throwing a near perfect game wasn’t on my 2025 bingo card. I think Houston gets revenge here, so give me the Astros here.