Astros vs Red Sox Prediction 8/11/25 MLB Picks Today

The Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros meet Monday in MLB action from Daikin Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Astros vs Red Sox Prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Boston Red Sox will start Garrett Crochet here and Crochet is 13-4 with a 2.24 ERA and 183 strikeouts this season. In his career, Crochet is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 17 strikeouts against the Astros. Cristian Javier will make his season debut for the Astros here and was 3-1 with a 3.89 ERA and 27 strikeouts last season. In his career, Javier is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 14 strikeouts against the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to rebound from a 6-2 loss at the hands of the San Diego Padres last time out to sit at 65-54 on the year. After this series, the Red Sox will head home for a series against the Miami Marlins.

Red Sox Drop Back-To-Back Games

Alex Bregman has 82 hits including 22 doubles along with 14 home runs and 46 RBIs this season. Trevor Story’s added 113 hits with 18 home runs, 73 RBIs and 19 stolen bases while Jarren Duran has 124 hits with 31 doubles, 12 triples, 12 home runs, 65 RBIs and a team-high 18 stolen bases. Kristian Campbell’s added 51 hits with 10 doubles, 6 homers and 21 RBIs while Wilyer Abreu has 21 home runs with 64 RBIs and 6 stolen bases and Ceddanne Rafaela has 14 homers, 23 doubles, 3 triples, 51 RBIs and 16 stolen bases this season.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Astros have lost each of their last seven games against American League opponents following a win.
• The Red Sox have won each of their last seven games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 home games against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last 10 night games.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances in night games against AL West teams that held a winning record.
• Jarren Duran has recorded a Double in each of the Red Sox’s last four games as road favorites against AL opponents.

Houston Astros Recap

The Houston Astros come into this game looking to add on to their 7-1 win over the New York Yankees on Sunday to improve to 66-52 on the year. After this series, the Astros will square off against the Baltimore Orioles at home.

Astros Win 4 Of Their Last 6

Jose Altuve has 126 hits including 18 doubles, 21 home runs and 63 RBIs. Jeremy Pena also has 110 hits with 20 doubles, 12 homers and 44 RBIs with 15 stolen bases as well. Jake Meyers has 15 doubles as well and Christian Walker has 16 home runs and 63 RBIs but has also accrued a team-high 123 strikeouts so far this season. Altuve also has 8 stolen bases while Jake Meyers has 14 stolen bases this season. Isaac Paredes also has 19 home runs with 50 RBIs of his own and Cam Smith has contributed 7 homers and 48 RBIs.

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won each of their last eight games as home underdogs.
• The Red Sox have lost four of their last five games as favorites against the Astros following a loss.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last 11 games as underdogs against AL East opponents following a win.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Astros following a loss.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Jose Altuve has hit a home run in each of the Astros’ last two games as underdogs.
• Jeremy Pena has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Astros as home underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Cristian Javier has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances against AL East opponents.
• Cristian Javier has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances.
• Yainer Diaz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last 13 night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Red Sox’s last six games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the last seven games between the Red Sox and Astros at Daikin Park have gone OVER the total runs line.

Astros vs Red Sox Prediction

I’m on the Red Sox in this one. Historically, the Astros have been a solid team against left-handed pitching, but I think this is just a spot where I expect them to struggle given Crochet’s run of form. The Red Sox are also playing really well since the all-star break, and it’s hard to envision Cristian Javier dominating in his first start back, and Javier wasn’t the strongest in his rehab starts. I’ll roll with the Red Sox in this one.