Mariners vs Astros Prediction 5/14/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Mariners vs Astros Prediction for this MLB matchup on Thursday, May 14^th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have a 17-27 record this season and are sitting in the fourth place of the AL West. They have a 10-12 home record and are coming off a 4-3 win at home against the Mariners. They will face the Rangers and the Twins next.

The Astros have a .257 batting average this season, .332 OBP and .421 Slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 5.54 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Yordan Alvarez is the team’s best hitter with a .309 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 29 and adding a team‑high 13 home runs.

Mike Burrows (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros, and he has a 2-4 record, 5.04 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.

Seattle Mariners Preview

The Seattle Mariners have a 21-23 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the AL West. They have a 9-12 away record and are coming off a 3-4 loss on the road against the Astros. They will face the Padres and the White Sox next.

The Mariners have a .230 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .380 Slugging percentage. Seattle’s pitching staff has a 3.63 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Randy Arozarena is the team’s best hitter with a .306 batting average. Luke Raley leads the team in RBI with 24, also adding a team‑high 9 home runs.

Luis Castillo (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners, and he has a 0-4 record, 6.57 ERA and 1.62 WHIP.

Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros Betting Trends: May 14, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Mike Burrows      Record this season: 2-4      ERA: 5.04
• Home Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Mariners: 0-1

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won each of their last eight Thursday day games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mariners have lost four of their last five games as road favorites against AL West opponents following a road loss.
• The Astros have covered the run line in five of their last six day games against American League opponents.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight Thursday games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Astros have won the first inning in three of their last four day games at Daikin Park.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight Thursday day games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Luis Castillo      Record this season: 0-4      ERA: 6.57
• Road Record: 0-3
• Last 5 against Astros: 1-1

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• The Astros have lost each of their last 11 games following an extra innings win.
• The Mariners have won nine of their last 10 games against the Astros.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games following an extra innings win.
• The Mariners have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games against American League opponents following an extra innings loss.
• The Mariners have won the first inning in four of their last five day games against AL West opponents.
• The Mariners have led after 3 innings in eight of their last nine day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mariners have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven games at Daikin Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Astros’ last 10 games after going to extra innings have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Mariners’ last seven games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Mariners’ last nine day games against AL West opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Astros’ last six games.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Christian Walker has hit a home run in three of the Astros’ last five home games against AL opponents.
• Isaac Paredes has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in day games against AL teams that held a losing record.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks 4th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.418) this season.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

• Luis Castillo has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances against the Astros.
• Randy Arozarena has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mariners’ last 10 road games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
• Cal Raleigh has hit a home run in three of the Mariners’ last six games against AL West opponents.
• Randy Arozarena ranks T8th in the league in Steals (11) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros rank 30th in the league for ERA this season (5.54).
• The Astros rank 30th in the league for walks allowed this season (223).
• The Mariners rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (108).
• The Mariners rank 27th in the league for doubles this season (57).

Mariners vs Astros Prediction

The Mariners are 9-1 in their last 10 meetings against the Astros and are 5-1 in their last 6 visits in Houston.

In this Mariners vs Astros Prediction, the Brewers are coming as -150 home favorites. I don’t trust either pitcher in this matchup, that is why I will go once again with the over in this one. Both pitchers have a combined 11.61 ERA, with Castillo being a dumpster fire for the Mariners lately, with 15 earned runs across his last three starts. Both pitchers had 6 and 7 earned runs in their previous start against the other team this season and the Astros have the league’s worst bullpen. Take the over 9 runs in this one.