Mariners vs Blue Jays Prediction 10/15/25 MLB Picks Today

The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners meet Wednesday in MLB Game 3 ALCS action at T-Mobile Park. Here’s a Mariners vs Blue Jays Prediction. This article will include a Mariners vs Blue Jays Pick.

Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays need a win to cut the series deficit to 2-1. The Toronto Blue Jays are batting .278 on the season, have a .330 OBP, and a .483 slugging percentage. The Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff has a 5.09 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. Ernie Clement leads the Toronto Blue Jays with 10 hits and 5 RBI while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho have combined for 16 hits and 13 RBI.

Shane Bieber gets the ball for the Toronto Blue Jays, and he is 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA and 37 strikeouts this season. Bieber is 1-1 with a 5.23 ERA and 24 strikeouts in his postseason career. Bieber is 2-2 with a 2.30 ERA and 49 strikeouts in his career against the Seattle Mariners.

Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners look to take an overwhelming 3-0 series lead and become a game away from a World Series berth. The Seattle Mariners are batting .217 on the season, have a .303 OBP, and a .374 slugging percentage. The Seattle Mariners pitching staff has a 2.83 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Cal Raleigh leads the Seattle Mariners with 10 hits and 5 RBI, while Josh Naylor and Jorge Polanco have combined for 17 hits and 10 RBI.

George Kirby gets the ball for the Seattle Mariners, and he is 10-8 with a 4.21 ERA and 137 strikeouts this season. Kirby is 0-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 20 strikeouts in his postseason career. Kirby is 0-1 with a 6.28 ERA and 15 strikeouts in his career against the Toronto Blue Jays.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: George Kirby      Record this season (inc. playoffs): 10-8      ERA: 4.10
• Home Record: 5-4
• Last 5 against Blue Jays: 0-1

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• The Mariners have won eight of their last nine night games against American League opponents.
• The Blue Jays have lost seven of their last eight road playoff games.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night playoff games after not playing the previous day.
• The Mariners have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games against American League opponents.
• The Mariners have led after 3 innings in eight of their last nine games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven road playoff games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Shane Bieber      Record this season (inc. playoffs): 4-2      ERA: 3.77
• Road Record: 2-1
• Last 5 against Mariners: 1-2

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The underdogs have won each of the last five games between the Blue Jays and Mariners.
• The Mariners have lost each of their last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Blue Jays’ last 13 games at T-Mobile Park.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as home favorites against the Blue Jays following a win.
• The Blue Jays have won the first inning in four of their last five night games.
• The Mariners have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games against AL East opponents.
• The Mariners have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 Wednesday night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Blue Jays’ last six games as underdogs against the Mariners have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the last five games between the Blue Jays and Mariners at T-Mobile Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Blue Jays’ last nine games at T-Mobile Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mariners’ last five home games.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

• Jorge Polanco has recorded at least one Double in four of the Mariners’ last five games as home favorites against AL opponents.
• Cal Raleigh has hit a home run in each of the Mariners’ last four games as home favorites against AL East opponents.
• Randy Arozarena has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with his team as a favorite against the Blue Jays.
• Cal Raleigh ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (60) this season.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• George Springer has hit a home run in two of the Blue Jays’ last three games against the Mariners.
• Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances against AL West opponents.
• Bo Bichette has recorded a Double in each of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• George Springer ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.399) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mariners rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (234).
• The Mariners rank T29th in the league for triples this season (9).
• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1461).
• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.265).

Mariners vs Blue Jays Prediction

I’d like to think the Blue Jays can make a series of this, but the Mariners keep finding ways to win and get dominant performances from their pitching staff. Bieber also hasn’t been good lately, allowing 32 hits and 15 earned runs in his last 31.2 innings. The Bieber have gone into a hole offensively in these last two games, and I’m not sure things turn around on the road.

Kirby wasn’t good this season, but he’s been strong through 10 postseason innings, and he has a 3.38 ERA and .227 allowed batting average in 66.2 home innings. We’re also not laying a crazy price. At home and in better form, I have to give the M’s the edge, even though I’m hoping we can get a competitive series.