Mariners vs Padres Prediction 5/16/25 MLB Picks Today

The Seattle Mariners are visiting the San Diego Padres on Friday, May 16^th at the Petco Park in the opening game of this series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Mariners vs Padres Prediction. We will examine:

The San Diego Padres’ recent form and player performance

The Seattle Mariners’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the San Diego Padres

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Seattle Mariners

Recent betting trends in games played between the Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres game

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 27-15 record this season and are sitting in second place in the NL West. They have a 16-5 home record, and are 19-22 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 5-1 home victory over the Los Angeles Angels, and are 4-2 in their last 6 games. Over is 5-1 in their last 6 games, and they are playing the Braves and the Blue Jays next.

The Padres have a .264 batting average this season, a .333 OBP, and a .400 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.33 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.  Manny Machado leads the Padres with 52 hits and a team-high .340 batting average. Fernando Tatis Jr leads the team both in RBI, with 26, and in home runs, with 11.

Stephen Kolek (R) will take the mound for the Padres, and he has a 2-0 record, 0.00 ERA, and 0.91 WHIP. He has yet to give a run this season, as he has two shutout performances in 14.1 innings pitched across two starts. This will be his first career start against the Mariners.

Seattle Mariners Preview

The Seattle Mariners have a 23-19 record this season and are sitting in first place in the AL West. The Mariners have a 10-8 road record and 25-15 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-3 home defeat by the Yankees, and are 1-5 in their last 6 games. Over is 7-3 in their last 10 games, and they are playing the Astros and the White Sox next.

The Mariners have a .239 batting average this season, a .327 OBP, and a .399 Slugging percentage. Seattle’s pitching staff has a 4.02 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Julio Rodriguez leads the Mariners with 39 hits, while JP Crawford is the team’s best hitter with a .271 batting average. Jorge Polanco leads the team in RBI with 29, while Cal Raleigh adds a team-high 13 home runs.

Logan Evans (R) will take the mound for the Mariners, and he has a 1-1 record, 3.60 ERA, and 1.60 WHIP. His only road start was his best of the season, as he had a quality performance with one earned run in 5 innings of work against the Texas Rangers.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last 11 games as home favorites following a win.
• The Mariners have lost each of their last six road games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last 12 home games following a win.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven night games against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in five of their last six home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in each of their last six night games.

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• The Mariners have won each of their last six games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Padres have lost each of their last three games as favorites against the Mariners following a win.
• The Mariners have covered the run line in each of their last six night games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games against the Mariners following a win.
• The Mariners have won the first inning in three of their last four road games against National League opponents.
• The Mariners have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against National League opponents.
• The Mariners have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games at Petco Park against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mariners’ last four games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Padres’ last six games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 14 of the Mariners’ last 16 road games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Padres’ last seven games as favorites.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (286).
• The Padres rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.264).
• The Mariners rank T3rd in the league for walks this season (168).
• The Mariners are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.

Mariners vs Padres Prediction

In their four meetings last season, the Mariners led the Padres 3-1 wins, winning both games in San Diego with a combined 10-3 score. The Mariners are 7-2 in their last 9 overall meetings against the Padres, and under is 5-3-2 in their last 10 meetings.

In this Mariners vs Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -150 home favorites. The Padres are rightfully favored, as they have a better record this season, and they have the second-best home record in the National League. On the other hand, the Mariners are mediocre on the road and are coming into this matchup in poor form. Stephen Kolek has been unhittable in his two starts this season, and with San Diego’s 7th-best bullpen to back him up, I expect the Padres to get the job done at home. Take the San Diego Padres on the moneyline in this one.