Mariners vs Pirates Prediction 7/5/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Mariners vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, July 5th at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

The Seattle Mariners are 46-42 this year after they won game one by a score of 6-0 on Friday afternoon. Seattle jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the first inning, and they tacked on a few insurance runs late in the shutout win. The Mariners recorded seven hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Raleigh, who went 2-4 with two home runs and three RBIs in the win. Seattle started Woo, who allowed three hits and zero earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Thornton and Bazardo finished the shutout. 

Prior to this series, the Mariners split four games with the Royals and won two out of three against the Rangers. Seattle has won four of their last six games, and they are currently second in the AL West standings. The Seattle pitching staff has a 3.85 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a .244 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 400 runs with a .248 batting average and a .323 on-base percentage this season. Cal Raleigh has led Seattle with 35 home runs and 74 RBIs, while Randy Arozarena has added 13 home runs and 41 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Seattle is Luis Castillo, who is 4-5 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 96.1 innings pitched this year. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 38-51 this season after they were shut out in game one of this series on Friday. Pittsburgh fell behind early in the game, and their offense never woke up in the rough loss. The Pirates recorded five hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Gonzales, who went 3-4 in the loss. Pittsburgh started Falter, who allowed three hits and three earned runs over 5.2 innings for the loss, while Ashcraft allowed two earned runs in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Pirates swept the Cardinals and Mets in three games each. Pittsburgh has won six of its last seven games, and they are currently last in the NL Central standings. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 3.66 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and a .231 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 310 runs with a .234 batting average and a .306 on-base percentage this season. Oneil Cruz has led Pittsburgh with 15 home runs and 35 RBIs, while Bryan Reynolds has added 10 home runs and 45 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Mike Burrows, who is 1-2 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 34.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Mariners will beat the Pirates

• The home team has won each of the Pirates’ last nine games.
• The Pirates have lost four of their last five road games against American League opponents.
• The Mariners have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as home favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games as underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Mariners have won the first inning in each of their last five games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games against American League opponents.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs against American League opponents.

Why the Pirates will beat the Mariners

• The Mariners have lost five of their last six games as favorites against National League opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have won four of their last five games as underdogs.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games following a home win.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 road games against AL West opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in each of their last four night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Pirates’ last eight night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Mariners’ last eight games as favorites against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mariners’ last eight games against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last four games at T-Mobile Park.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

• Luis Castillo has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last 29 home appearances against NL opponents.
• Cal Raleigh has hit at least one home run in each of the Mariners’ last six games against NL Central opponents.
• Randy Arozarena has recorded at least one Double in five of the Mariners’ last six games against NL Central opponents.
• Randy Arozarena has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mariners’ last 10 games against NL Central opponents.
• Luis Castillo has recorded a win in each of his last four home appearances against the Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Jack Suwinski has hit at least one home run in two of his last three appearances in night games against AL West teams that held a winning record.
• Jared Triolo has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances in night games against AL West teams that held a winning record.
• Tommy Pham has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 road appearances against AL West opponents that held a winning record.

Mariners vs Pirates Prediction 

Pittsburgh had its six-game winning streak come to an end on Friday afternoon in a shutout loss, but they have still played very well over the last week. The Pirates are 12-30 on the road this year, while the Mariners are 23-21 at home. Seattle has had some issues stringing wins together in recent series, and their offense is never great at home. The Mariners are starting Castillo, who has allowed 1, 5, 3, and 2 earned runs in his last four starts. The Pirates are going with Burrows, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings. We took the under to start this series on Friday, and I think we will see another lower-scoring game. Take the under once again here.