Mariners vs Rangers Prediction 6/29/25 MLB Picks Today

The Seattle Mariners are visiting the Texas Rangers on Sunday, June 29^th at the Globe Life Field in the third game of this series, with both teams being tied 1-1 wins. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Mariners vs Rangers Prediction. We will examine:

The Texas Rangers recent form and player performance

The Seattle Mariners recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Texas Rangers

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Seattle Mariners

Recent betting trends in games played between the Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers game

Texas Rangers Preview

The Texas Rangers have a 41-42 record this season and are sitting on the 4^th place of the AL West. The Rangers have a 24-17 home record and 28-53 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-2 home victory over the Mariners, and are 3-1 in their last 4 games. They are playing the Orioles and the Padres next.

The Rangers have a .227 batting average this season, .294 OBP and .364 slugging percentage. Texas’ pitching staff has a 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.  Josh Smith leads the Rangers with 69 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .278 batting average. Adolis Garcia leads the team in RBI, with 42.

Jack Leiter (R) is the projected starter for the Rangers, and he has a 4-5 record, 4.55 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

Seattle Mariners Preview

The Seattle Mariners have a 42-40 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the AL West. The Mariners have a 22-21 road record and 45-33 in over/under They are coming off a 2-3 road defeat by the Rangers, and are 1-3 in their last 4 games. Over is 7-2 in their last 9 games and they are playing the Royals and the Pirates next.

The Mariners have a .247 batting average this season, .324 OBP and .402 Slugging percentage. Seattle’s pitching staff has a 3.96 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Julio Rodriguez leads the Mariners in hits with 85, while Cal Raleigh leads the team both in RBI with 69, and in home runs with 32. J.P. Crawford is the team’s best hitter with a .279 batting average.

Luis Castillo (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners, and he has a 4-5 record, 3.69 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

Why the Texas Rangers will win

• The Mariners have lost eight of their last 10 games as road favorites against the Rangers following a road loss.
• The Rangers have won seven of their last nine games as home underdogs against the Mariners following a home win.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games as favorites against AL West opponents.
• The Rangers have covered the run line each of their last six day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rangers have led after 3 innings in eight of their last 10 day games.
• The Rangers have led after 5 innings in five of their last six day games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• The Rangers have lost each of their last eight games against the Mariners following a win.
• The Mariners have won each of their last six games against the Rangers following a loss.
• The Rangers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games following a home win.
• The Mariners have covered the run line in three of their last four games against American League opponents following an extra innings loss.
• The Mariners have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Sunday games as road favorites.
• The Mariners have led after 3 innings in each of their last nine Sunday games as road favorites.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Rangers’ last 10 games following an extra innings win have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Mariners’ last four day games against AL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Mariners’ last eight games against American League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Rangers’ last seven games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rangers rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.24).
• The Rangers rank 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (286).
• The Mariners rank 28th in the league for doubles this season (113).
• The Mariners rank T28th in the league for triples this season (4).

Mariners vs Rangers Prediction

The Mariners are 6-2 in their 8 meetings against the Rangers this season, and 9-3 in their last 12 overall meetings. The Mariners are 5-3 in their last 8 visits in Texas, and over is 8-3 in their last 11 meetings.

In this Mariners vs Rangers Prediction, the Mariners are coming as -125 road favorites. Both teams have almost identical records, and similar home/away splits. Both pitchers are due to some negative regression, as they have a 9.75 expected ERA combined. Castillo has also been terrible on the road, and both pitchers are coming into this matchup in terrible form. Castillo has 3+ earned runs in three of his last four starts, and Leiter 3+ runs in each of his last three. I expect runs while those two pitchers are on the mound, so take the over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings.