Marlins vs Astros Prediction 8/4/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Marlins vs Astros prediction for this MLB game on Monday, August 4th at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 55-55 this year after they swept the Yankees in three games by scores of 13-12, 2-0, and 7-3. In their game three win, Miami trailed 1-0 in the first inning, but they scored the next six runs to get the victory. The Marlins recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Stowers, who went 2-4 with one home run and four RBIs in the win. Miami started Cabrera, who allowed two hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings for the win, while Simpson allowed three earned runs in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Marlins won two out of three against the Cardinals and two out of three against the Brewers. Miami has won five games in a row and they are currently third in the NL East standings. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.37 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .248 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 475 runs with a .252 batting average and a .316 on base percentage this season. Kyle Stowers has led Miami with 25 home runs and 71 RBIs, while Agustin Ramirez has added 17 home runs and 50 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Sandy Alcantara, who is 6-9 with a 6.36 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP over 109.0 innings pitched this year. 

Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros are 62-50 this season after they lost all three games against Boston by scores of 1-2, 3-7, and 1-6. In their game three loss, Houston led 1-0 in the fourth inning, but they failed to score over the last five innings for the defeat. The Astros recorded just three hits in the game and they were led by Correa, who went 1-4 with one home run and one RBI in the loss. Houston started Valdez, who allowed seven hits and five earned runs over 6.0 innings for the loss, while Ort and Hernandez finished the game. 

Prior to that series, the Astros won two out of three against the Nationals, but lost all four against the Athletics before that. Houston has lost eight of their last ten games and they are currently first in the AL West standings. The Houston pitching staff has a 3.71 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and a .230 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 478 runs with a .257 batting average and a .321 on base percentage this season. Jose Altuve has led Houston with 18 home runs and 57 RBIs, while Yanier Diaz has added 15 home runs and 45 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Jason Alexander, who is 1-1 with a 7.36 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP over 25.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Marlins will beat the Astros

• The Marlins have won seven of their last eight games against American League opponents.
• The Astros have lost each of their last six Monday games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have covered the run line each of their last eight games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against the Marlins following a loss.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Astros’ last eight night games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the last five games between the Astros and Marlins have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last five night games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Astros’ last five road games against NL East opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Stowers has hit a home run in two of the Marlins’ last three games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded five or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Kyle Stowers has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last six games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• Kyle Stowers ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.575) this season.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Christian Walker has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros’ last 10 road games against NL opponents.
• Chas McCormick has hit a home run in each of the Astros’ last two road games against the Marlins.
• Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four road appearances against NL opponents.
• Jeremy Pena ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.322) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank T5th in the league for strikeouts against this season (870).
• The Marlins rank T25th in the league for home runs this season (105).
• The Astros rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1081).
• The Astros rank 3rd in the league for batting average this season (.257).

Marlins vs Astros Prediction 

Miami rolls into this contest after a great sweep of the Yankees, while Houston failed to find a win in their series with Boston. The Marlins are 27-29 at home this year, while the Astros are 27-26 on the road. Houston is still leading the AL West standings, but their lead is shrinking by the game. The Astros are starting Alexander, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four outings. The Marlins are going with Alcantara, who has allowed a total of zero earned runs in his last 12.0 innings of work. I am hesitant to trust Alcantara with how inconsistent he has been, but this Houston team is just finding ways to lose. Take Miami here.