Marlins vs Diamondbacks Prediction 6/28/25 MLB Picks Today

The Miami Marlins are visiting the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday, June 28^th at the Chase Field in the second game of this series, with the Marlins having a 1-0 lead. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Marlins vs Diamondbacks Prediction. We will examine:

The Arizona Diamondbacks’ recent form and player performance

The Miami Marlins’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Arizona Diamondbacks

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Miami Marlins

Recent betting trends in games played between the Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Miami Marlins vs Arizona Diamondbacks game

Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 41-40 record this season and are sitting in 4^th place in the NL West. The Diamondbacks have a 20-19 home record and are 40-36 in over/under. They are coming off an 8-9 home defeat by the Marlins and have back-to-back losses. Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games, and they are playing the Giants and the Royals next.

The Diamondbacks have a .255 batting average this season, a .331 OBP, and a .449 slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.76 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Josh Naylor leads the Diamondbacks with 89 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .304 batting average. Eugenio Suarez leads the team in RBI, with 67, and in home runs with 25.

Brandon Pfaadt (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, and he has an 8-5 record, 5.49 ERA, and 1.39 WHIP.

Miami Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins have a 35-45 record this season and are sitting in 4^th place in the NL East. The Marlins have an 18-21 road record and are 40-39 in over/under. They are coming off a 9-8 road victory over the Dbacks, and are 6-1 in their last 7 games. Over is 3-0 in their last 3 games, and they are playing the Brewers and the Twins next.

The Marlins have a .255 batting average this season, .317 OBP, and .391 slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.88 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.  Xavier Edwards leads the Marlins with 74 hits and is the team’s best hitter with a .285 batting average. Kyle Stowers adds team-highs in RBI with 40 and in home runs with 13.

Sandy Alcantara (R) will take the mound for the Marlins, and he has a 4-8 record, 6.69 ERA, and 1.46 WHIP.

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won 14 of their last 15 day games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Marlins have lost 11 of their last 14 day games against NL West opponents following a road win.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line each of their last four day games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in 16 of their last 20 day games against NL West opponents following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have won the first inning in three of their last four day games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven games against the Marlins.
• The Diamondbacks have led after 5 innings in four of their last five day games at Chase Field against NL East opponents.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won each of their last six games as road underdogs.
• The Diamondbacks have lost six of their last seven games as favorites against National League opponents following a loss.
• The road team has covered the run line in each of the last 12 games between the Marlins and Diamondbacks.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six day games against National League opponents.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in three of their last four day games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Marlins’ last six road games against NL West opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Diamondbacks’ last five day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last four day games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last four day games against National League opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Diamondbacks rank 2nd in the league for doubles this season (145).
• The Diamondbacks rank 2nd in the league for slugging percentage this season (.449).
• The Marlins rank 26th in the league for home runs this season (71).
• The Marlins rank 26th in the league for ERA this season (4.88).

Marlins vs Diamondbacks Prediction

The Dbacks are 6-1 in their last 7 meetings against the Marlins, but the Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 visits to Arizona. Over is 4-1 in their last 5 meetings.

In this Marlins vs Diamondbacks Prediction, the Diamondbacks are coming as -150 home favorites. The Diamondbacks have a better overall record, but both teams have similar home/away splits, and I don’t trust either pitcher in this matchup, as they have both been terrible this season with a combined 12.18 ERA. Alcantara has also been absolutely terrible on the road with a 9.82 ERA. The D-backs have the 4^th-worst bullpen in the league, and both teams are better against righties, averaging 10 runs per game against right-handed pitching. I expect fireworks offensively in this one, so take the over 9 with confidence.