Marlins vs Mets Prediction 9/28/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Marlins vs Mets prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, September 28th at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 78-83 this year after they split the first two games in this series by scores of 6-2 and 0-5. In their game two loss, Miami fell behind in the first inning and never found any offense at the plate. The Marlins recorded just one hit in the game and they were led by Edwards, who went 1-4 in the loss. Miami started Perez, who allowed three hits and three earned runs over 5.1 innings for the loss, while Soriano allowed two earned runs in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Marlins lost two out of three against the Phillies, but did sweep the Rangers in three games before that. Miami has won eight of their last eleven games and they are third in the NL East standings. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.62 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .249 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 705 runs with a .250 batting average and a .314 on base percentage this season. Kyle Stowers (IL) has led Miami with 25 home runs and 73 RBIs, while Agustin Ramirez has added 21 home runs and 67 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Edward Cabrera, who is 7-7 with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 132.2 innings pitched this year. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 83-78 this season after they won game two by a score of 5-0 on Saturday afternoon. New York led for the entire game and added two insurance runs in the ninth to seal the victory. The Mets recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Alonso, who went 2-4 with one home run and two RBIs in the win. New York started Holmes, who allowed one hit and zero earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Raley and Rogers picked up holds. 

Prior to this series, the Mets won two out of three against the Cubs, but lost two out of three against the Nationals before that. New York has lost four of their last seven games and they are second in the NL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 4.03 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 766 runs with a .249 batting average and a .326 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with 38 home runs and 126 RBIs, while Juan Soto has added 43 home runs and 105 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Sean Manaea, who is 2-4 with a 5.80 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 59.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Marlins will beat the Mets

• The Mets have lost each of their last nine Sunday day games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have won seven of their last eight games against the Mets following a home loss.
• The Marlins have covered the run line each of their last 10 Sunday games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five day games against opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Mets will beat the Marlins

• The Marlins have lost four of their last five day games against NL East opponents.
• The road team has won nine of the Marlins’ last 12 games.
• The road team has covered the run line in eight of the Marlins’ last 10 games.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five day games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last six road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in four of their last five games.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six home day games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last eight day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Marlins’ last six games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last six games between the Mets and Marlins.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Mets’ last eight road games.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Edward Cabrera has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last 10 home appearances against NL opponents.
• Kyle Stowers has hit a home run in three of his last seven home appearances against NL opponents.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Sunday appearances at LoanDepot Park.
• Edward Cabrera has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in four of the Mets’ last six games.
• Pete Alonso has recorded a Double in each of the Mets’ last three games.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 22 games against opponents that held a losing record.

Marlins vs Mets Prediction 

New York picked up a very important win on Saturday afternoon in game two of this series, but they still need to gain ground on Cincinnati to make the playoffs. The Mets are 34-46 on the road this season, while the Marlins are 37-43 at home. Miami is starting Cabrera, who has allowed 3+ earned runs in four of his last five starts. New York is going with Manaea, who has allowed 3+ earned runs in three of his last five outings. I really want to take the Mets in the must win, but I am not confident in either starter. Take the over here.