Marlins vs Phillies Prediction 9/24/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Marlins vs Phillies Prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, September 24^th at the Citizens Bank Park in the second game of this series, with the Marlins having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 92-65 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the NL East. They have a 51-25 home record, and are 71-76 in over/under. They are coming off a 5-6 home defeat by the Marlins, and are 1-4 in their last 5 games. They are playing the Twins next.

The Phillies have a .260 batting average this season, .330 OBP and .431 Slugging percentage. Philly’s pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Trea Turner leads the Phillies with 179 hits and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .305 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 130 RBI and a team-high 54 home runs.

Jesus Luzardo (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 14-7 record, 4.08 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.

Miami Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins have a 77-80 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the NL East. The Marlins have a 41-38 road record and are 80-72 in over/under. They are coming off a 6-5 road victory over the Phillies, and have seven consecutive wins. Over is 5-2 in their last 7 games and are playing the Mets next.

The Marlins have a .252 batting average this season, .315 OBP and .397 slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.62 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  Xavier Edwards leads the Marlins with 153 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .281 batting average. He also adds a team-high 25 home runs, while Otto Lopez leads the team in RBI, with 77.

Ryan Weathers (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, and he has a 2-1 record, 3.21 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: September 24, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jesus Luzardo      Record this season: 14-7      ERA: 4.08
• Home Record: 7-2
• Last 5 against Marlins: 1-1

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last 13 games following a home loss.
• The Marlins have lost eight of their last nine games at Citizens Bank Park after going to extra innings.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last seven games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine night games against NL East opponents following a road win.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in each of their last four night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 night games against the Marlins.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Ryan Weathers      Record this season: 2-1      ERA: 3.21
• Road Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Phillies: 0-2

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The road team has won each of the Marlins’ last eight games.
• The Phillies have lost each of their last three games as favorites.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last seven road games following an extra innings win.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line each of their last five home games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games at Citizens Bank Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Phillies’ last eight games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Marlins’ last eight games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last 12 games as favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Marlins’ last eight games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in each of the Phillies’ last three home games.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last eight home appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Bryson Stott has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Brandon Marsh has recorded at least one Double in four of his last five appearances against NL East opponents.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (54) this season.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last six games as underdogs.
• Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in eight of his last 30 appearances with the Marlins as underdogs.
• Kyle Stowers has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.260).
• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (424).
• The Marlins rank 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1214).
• The Marlins are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction

The Phillies are 4-2 in their last 6 head-to-head meetings against the Marlins, but both teams are tied 2-2 wins in their last 4 meetings in Philadelphia.

In this Marlins vs Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -200 home favorites. The Phillies continue to struggle since they clinched their playoff spot, while on the other hand, the Marlins are red-hot are they are still fighting for a Wild Card spot. Luzardo has been terrible for the Phillies lately, with 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts, and he has been weaker at home this season, with a 4.50 ERA across 15 home starts. Miami has a better bullpen, while Philly is weaker against lefties, so I will take a stab with the big road dog in this one. Take the Marlins at plus money on the road in this one.