Marlins vs Phillies Prediction 5/1/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Marlins vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 1st at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 15-16 this season after they won two out of three against the Dodgers by scores of 4-5, 2-1, and 3-2. In game three, Miami blew a 1-0 and a 2-1 lead, but they scored in the eighth inning for the win. The Marlins recorded six hits in the game and they were led by Ruiz, who went 2-4 with one home run and two RBIs. Alcantara allowed seven hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Nardi picked up the win and Faucher got the save. Prior to that series, Miami lost two out of three against the Giants, but did win two out of three against the Cardinals before that. 

This season, Miami has a 3.91 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a .223 opponent batting average, while they have scored 135 runs with a .250 batting average and a .331 on base percentage. Liam Hicks has led the Marlins with seven home runs and 28 RBIs, while Owen Caissie has added two home runs and 15 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Eury Perez, who is 2-2 with a 4.60 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over 31.1 innings pitched this season. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 12-19 this year after they swept the Giants in three games by scores of 7-0, 3-2, and 6-5. In game three, Philadelphia blew a 4-2 lead in the sixth inning and they needed a run in the ninth to tie the game, before winning in extra innings. The Phillies recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Garcia and Schwarber, who both had two RBIs. Mayza opened the game, while Bowlan and Richards both recorded a blown save and Shugart got the win. Prior to that series, Philadelphia lost two out of three against the Braves and all four against the Cubs. 

This season, Philadelphia has a 4.84 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP and a .280 opponent batting average, while they have scored 118 runs with a .227 batting average and a .302 on base percentage. Kyle Schwarber has led the Phillies with 11 home runs and 20 RBIs, while Bryce Harper has added six home runs and 19 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Zack Wheeler, who is 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 5.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Phillies have lost each of their last four games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The home team has won nine of the Phillies’ last 10 games.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games following a win.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in four of the Marlins’ last five games.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as road favorites.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last 12 games against the Marlins after going to extra innings.
• The Marlins have lost each of their last seven night games against the Phillies at LoanDepot Park following a win.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven night games against the Phillies at LoanDepot Park following a win.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in four of their last five night games at LoanDepot Park after going to extra innings.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in four of their last five games as road favorites against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Marlins’ last four games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Phillies’ last six night games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Marlins’ last eight games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last five games as road favorites against NL East opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in three of his last four home appearances after not playing the previous day.
• Xavier Edwards has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last nine home games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Xavier Edwards ranks 4th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.336) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four games.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded seven or more strikeouts in 11 of his last 12 appearances with the Phillies as favorites against NL East opponents.
• Bryce Harper has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against the Marlins.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 4th in the league in Home Runs (11) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank T1st in the league for steals this season (36).
• The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for triples this season (8).
• The Phillies rank 30th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.280).
• The Phillies rank 30th in the league for hits allowed this season (309).

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction 

Miami comes into this matchup after a huge series win over the Dodgers, but they have scored three runs or fewer in four of their last five. The Marlins are 10-6 at home this year, while the Phillies are 4-9 on the road. Philadelphia has won four of their last five games and they finally have some positive momentum. The Phillies are starting Wheeler, who is making just his second start of the year, while Perez has allowed 4, 0, 3, 2, and 4 earned runs in his last five outings. I don’t love how Perez has looked this season and I think the Phillies can build off their last series win. Take the Phillies to win here.