Mets vs Cubs Prediction 5/9/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Cubs prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 9th at Citi Field in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 24-14 this year after they won two out of three against Arizona by scores of 5-4, 1-5, and 7-1. In their game three win, New York scored the first four runs in the game and added three more in the ninth to secure the win. The Mets recorded eight hits in the game, and they were led by Soto, who went 2-4 with two home runs and three RBIs in the win. New York started Senga, who allowed two hits and zero earned runs over 6.0 innings in the win, while Kranick and Brazoban both recorded a hold.

Prior to that series, the Mets lost two out of three against the Cardinals and two out of three against the Diamondbacks. New York has lost five of their last eight games, and they are currently first in the NL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 2.89 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .235 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 181 runs with a .249 batting average and a .331 on-base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with nine home runs and 34 RBIs, while Brandon Nimmo has added seven home runs and 23 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Clay Holmes, who is 4-1 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 36.2 innings pitched this year. 

Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs are 22-16 this season after they lost two out of three against San Francisco by scores of 9-2, 5-14, and 1-3. In their game three loss, the Cubs cut the deficit to 3-1 in the fourth inning, but couldn’t find any more offense in the loss. The Cubs recorded four hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Crow-Armstrong, who went 1-3 with one RBI in the loss. Chicago started Brown, who allowed six hits and three earned runs over 5.0 innings in the loss, while five pitchers combined for 4.0 shutout innings out of the bullpen. 

Prior to that series, the Cubs won two out of three against the Brewers and two out of three against the Pirates. Chicago has lost three of their last four games, and they are currently first in the NL Central standings. The Chicago pitching staff has a 3.95 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 223 runs with a .258 batting average and a .335 on-base percentage this season. Kyle Tucker has led Chicago with nine home runs, 31 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases, while Seiya Suzuki has added nine home runs and 31 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Chicago is Jameson Taillon, who is 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 39.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Mets will beat the Cubs

• The Mets have won seven of their last eight home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have lost six of their last seven night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have covered the run line in four of their last five home games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight night games at Citi Field against National League opponents.
• The Mets have won the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites against the Cubs at Citi Field.

Why the Cubs will beat the Mets

• The Cubs have won eight of their last nine games as road underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Mets have lost each of their last seven games against the Cubs following a win.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites against the Cubs following a win.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in 11 of their last 12 games as road underdogs against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last four road night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs’ last five games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Mets’ last four games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Cubs’ last eight games as road underdogs.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last four home games.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has hit at least one home run in three of the Mets’ last four games as home favorites.
• Tyrone Taylor has scored at least one run in each of the Mets’ last seven night games.
• Pete Alonso has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Mets’ last four night games.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one Single in each of the Mets’ last six games against NL Central opponents.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Friday appearances.
• Pete Alonso ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.635) this season.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Dansby Swanson has recorded at least one Double in each of his last four road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Kyle Tucker has hit a home run in three of the Cubs’ last four games as underdogs.
• Dansby Swanson has recorded an RBI in each of his last five road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Dansby Swanson has scored at least one run in each of the Cubs’ last six night games.
• Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one Single in nine of his 10 previous appearances with the Cubs as underdogs against the Mets.
• Jameson Taillon has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against the Mets.
• Ian Happ has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cubs’ last nine road games.
• Jameson Taillon has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against the Mets.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks 5th in the league in Steals (12) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank T1st in the league for triples this season (10).
• The Mets rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (2.89).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for runs scored this season (223).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for hits this season (344).

Mets vs Cubs Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this series near the top of the NL standings, but New York is coming off a series win and will be at home. The Mets are 13-3 at home this year, while the Cubs are 12-7 on the road. Chicago has the highest scoring lineup in the MLB, but they will face Holmes, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts. The Mets have scored at least five runs in three of their last five games, and they will go against Taillon, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts. Take the under here.