Mets vs Guardians Prediction 8/4/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Guardians prediction for this MLB game on Monday, August 4th at Citi Field in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 63-49 this season after they dropped two out of three against San Francisco by scores of 3-4, 12-6, and 4-12. In their game three loss, New York led 1-0 in the first inning, but their pitching staff fell apart and allowed 12 of the next 13 runs for the blowout loss. The Mets recorded eight hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Alvarez, who went 2-3 with two RBIs in the loss. New York started Montas, who allowed seven hits and seven earned runs over 4.0 innings for the loss, while Stanek allowed five earned runs in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Mets lost all three against the Padres, but did sweep the Giants before that. New York has lost five of their last six games and they are currently second in the NL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.67 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .241 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 492 runs with a .241 batting average and a .320 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with 24 home runs and 86 RBIs, while Juan Soto has added 25 home runs and 63 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Sean Manaea, who is 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP over 17.1 innings pitched this season. 

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 56-55 this year after they won two out of three against Minnesota by scores of 3-2, 5-4, and 4-5. In their game three loss, Cleveland cut the deficit to 4-2 in the first inning and came up just short in their rally in the ninth. The Guardians recorded 10 hits in the game and they were led by Ramirez and Rocchio, who both had two RBIs in the loss. Cleveland started Cantillo, who allowed six hits and four earned runs over 5.2 innings for the loss, while Junis allowed one earned run in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Guardians won two out of three against the Rockies, but lost two out of three against the Royals before that. Cleveland has won four of their last five games and they are currently second in the AL Central standings. The Cleveland pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .242 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 436 runs with a .229 batting average and a .302 on base percentage this season. Jose Ramirez has led Cleveland with 23 home runs and 61 RBIs, while Kyle Manzardo has added 18 home runs and 48 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Slade Cecconi, who is 5-4 with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 76.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Mets will beat the Guardians

• The home team has won each of the last nine games between the Guardians and Mets.
• The Guardians have lost each of their last seven games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games against AL Central opponents.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last three games.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in five of their last six night games against AL Central opponents.
• The Mets have won the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record at Citi Field.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last four night games at Citi Field against AL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Guardians’ last nine road games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Nine of the Mets’ last 11 home games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Mets’ last 11 night games at Citi Field.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last five games against NL East opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Pete Alonso has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four games as home favorites.
• Sean Manaea has recorded six or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances at Citi Field against opponents that held a winning record.
• Starling Marte has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances after playing the previous day.
• Sean Manaea has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances.
• Juan Soto ranks 7th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.380) this season.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Jose Ramirez has hit a home run in four of the Guardians’ last five night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 road appearances against NL East opponents.
• Brayan Rocchio has recorded a Double in three of the Guardians’ last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jose Ramirez ranks T3rd in the league in Steals (32) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (99).
• The Mets are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.
• The Guardians rank 30th in the league for hits this season (833).
• The Guardians rank 30th in the league for batting average this season (.229).

Mets vs Guardians Prediction 

New York enters this series after losing five of their last six games, as they continue to battle with the Phillies at the top of the NL East standings. The Mets are 38-18 at home this year, while the Guardians are 27-28 on the road. Cleveland has won four of their last five games, but they have played two very poor teams. The Guardians are going with Cecconi, who has allowed 3, 2, and 6 earned runs in his last three starts. The Mets are starting Manaea, who has allowed one earned run in each of his last three starts. This is a decent pitching matchup, but I don’t think Cleveland has the offense to keep pace. Take the Mets -1.5 here.