Mets vs Guardians Prediction 8/5/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Guardians prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, August 5th at Citi Field in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 63-50 this year after they lost game one by a score of 7-6 on Monday night. New York trailed 5-0 in the sixth inning, but they tied the game in the eighth, before losing in the 10th. The Mets recorded 11 hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Alonso, who went 4-5 with one home run and four RBIs in the loss. New York started Manaea, who allowed seven hits and five earned runs over 5.2 innings, while Helsley picked up the loss in extras. 

Prior to this series, the Mets lost two out of three against the Giants and all three against the Padres. New York has lost six of their last seven games and they are currently second in the NL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.68 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .241 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 498 runs with a .241 batting average and a .320 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with 25 home runs and 90 RBIs, while Juan Soto has added 25 home runs and 63 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Clay Holmes, who is 9-6 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 117.1 innings pitched this year. 

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 57-55 this season after they won game one in a thriller on Monday night. Cleveland blew a 5-0 lead on Monday, but they answered with two in the 10th, which was barely enough for the victory. The Guardians recorded nine hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Arias, who went 1-4 with one home run and four RBIs in the win. Cleveland started Cecconi, who allowed four hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Gaddis blew the save, but Smith got the win. 

Prior to this series, the Guardians won two out of three against the Twins and two out of three against the Rockies. Cleveland has won five of their last six games and they are currently second in the AL Central standings. The Cleveland pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .242 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 443 runs with a .229 batting average and a .301 on base percentage this season. Jose Ramirez has led Cleveland with 23 home runs and 61 RBIs, while Kyle Manzardo has added 18 home runs and 48 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Logan Allen, who is 7-9 with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 108.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Mets will beat the Guardians

• The Mets have won each of their last eight games at Citi Field after going to extra innings.
• The Guardians have lost seven of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last eight home games after going to extra innings.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games following a win.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in four of their last five night games at Citi Field against AL Central opponents.

Why the Guardians will beat the Mets

• The Guardians have won each of their last six games after going to extra innings.
• The Mets have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine games against American League opponents following a home loss.
• The Guardians have covered the run line each of their last eight night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Guardians have led after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against the Mets.
• The Guardians have led after 5 innings in four of their last five night games against the Mets.
• The Guardians have won the first inning in three of their last four night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Guardians’ last five road games following an extra innings win have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Mets’ last four night games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last six games against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Mets’ last 12 night games at Citi Field.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Pete Alonso has hit a home run in four of the Mets’ last five games as home favorites.
• Brett Baty has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight home appearances after playing the previous day.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Jose Ramirez has hit a home run in three of the Guardians’ last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 road appearances against NL East opponents.

Mets vs Guardians Prediction 

Cleveland was able to stay hot with a dramatic win on Monday night to open this series, as they are well within striking distance in the Wild Card race. The Guardians are 28-28 on the road this year, while the Mets are 38-19 at home. New York has lost six of their last seven games and they are starting Holmes, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. The Guardians are going with Allen, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five. I like this pitching matchup and I think runs could be at a premium, so I like the under here.