Mets vs Marlins Prediction 4/8/25 MLB Picks Today

The Miami Marlins and the New York Mets meet on Tuesday in MLB action from Citi Field. This will be the second installment in a three-game series this week. Here’s a Mets vs Marlins prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Mets vs Marlins pick.

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

In their first matchup of the 2025 season, the Marlins took a series victory in a four-game set with the Pittsburgh Pirates, losing just once, 4-3 in game two. Miami wasn’t so fortunate in their next series against the New York Mets, winning just one of three games 4-2 in the second installment. The Marlins split their first pair in the weekend set versus the Atlanta Braves, losing 10-0 Friday before a 4-0 Saturday win. In the Sunday rubber match, Miami had their game called off due to the incoming weather. That matchup will be made up as a part of a split doubleheader on August 9. A Marlins loss would have marked Atlanta’s first series win of the season, but the 1-8 Braves will have to wait for that now.

In Monday’s opener versus the Mets, the Marlins were out-hit 9-7 in a 2-0 loss. Miami’s Xavier Edwards was the only batter on the team with multiple hits (2-for-3; walk). Starting pitcher Valente Bellozo finished with 3.2 innings, one earned run, five hits, two walks, and two strikeouts on the card.

As a starter for Tuesday’s matchup, Miami is sending out Connor Gillispie. This year over two starts, Gillispie is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 10 Ks in 10.0 innings. Over his career of five games (two starts), Gillispie is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in total.

New York Mets Betting Preview

Over on the Mets’ side, they kicked off their year with a series versus the Houston Astros. New York managed a 3-1 win in game two but dropped the other pair. New York was able to beat the Marlins 6-5 and 10-4 in their three-game set for their first series victory of the season, and then the Mets took wins 5-0 and 3-2 over the Toronto Blue Jays in their weekend matchup. On Sunday, in the finale, New York eked out a 2-1 victory, scoring both their runs in the third inning. Pete Alonso (two hits) and Brandon Nimmo had the RBI in the victory, while starter David Peterson went 4.2 innings with one earned on three hits and five walks.

In the Monday matchup, the Mets got 5.0 clean frames, five hits, and two walks out of starter Kodai Senga. Francisco Lindor led the offense with three hits and a run.

In the starting pitcher role for New York on Tuesday, it’ll be Clay Holmes. So far, over two starts, Holmes is 0-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 10 Ks over 9.1 innings. Holmes is 24-23 with a 3.69 career ERA in 313 games (six starts).

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won each of their last 10 games as home favorites.
• The Marlins have lost each of their last five day games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last six games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in 10 of their last 11 road games against National League opponents.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in four of their last five home games.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won each of their last five games as road underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Mets have lost seven of their last 10 games as favorites against the Marlins following a win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight day games following a home win.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have won the first inning in six of their last eight road games.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in eight of their last 10 road games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last five games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Marlins’ last six road games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Mets’ last seven games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Marlins’ last five games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.

Mets vs Marlins Prediction

I’m going to stay with the Mets here, but the line’s too thick to mess with. It’d be nice to see Holmes hit the five-inning mark as well. Over two starts so far, Holmes is 0-1, going 4.2 innings in each outing. He’s given up three earned on 11 hits and six walks overall. As for Gillispie, he’s gone 5.0 innings in both of his starts so far, notching four earned on eight hits and four walks in 10.0 frames total. Gillispie is coming off a no-decision versus the Mets with 5.0 innings and one earned run.

On Monday, New York had a very nice evening on the mound. The Mets got 4.0 innings, no earned, two hits, one walk, and four strikeouts from the bullpen behind Senga’s solid start. Another performance like that and New York will be in a very strong position on Tuesday.