Mets vs Marlins Prediction 7/31/26 MLB Picks Today

The Miami Marlins and New York Mets meet Friday in MLB action at Citi Field. Here’s a Mets vs Marlins Prediction. This article will include a Mets vs Marlins Pick.

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 55-55 on the year and play the Braves and Angels next. The Miami Marlins are batting .251 on the season, have a .326 OBP, and have a .407 slugging percentage. The Miami Marlins’ pitching staff has a 4.08 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Otto Lopez leads the Miami Marlins with 138 hits and 50 RBI, while Xavier Edwards and Liam Hicks have combined for 214 hits and 99 RBI.

Janson Junk gets the ball for the Miami Marlins, and he is 4-6 with a 4.89 ERA and 57 strikeouts this season. This will be Junk’s first career game against the New York Mets.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 47-63 on the year and play the Pirates and Guardians next. The New York Mets are batting .233 on the season, have a .305 OBP, and have a .382 slugging percentage. The New York Mets’ pitching staff has a 4.11 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Bo Bichette leads the New York Mets with 112 hits and 53 RBI, while Carson Benge and Juan Soto have combined for 186 hits and 93 RBI.

Freddy Peralta gets the ball for the New York Mets, and he is 5-9 with a 4.99 ERA and 113 strikeouts this season. Peralta is 3-5 with a 4.47 ERA and 72 strikeouts in his career against the Miami Marlins.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Marlins have lost each of their last 10 road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The home team has won each of the last eight games between the Marlins and Mets.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line each of their last 10 road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last eight home games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have won the first inning in five of their last six night games against the Marlins.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four road games.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won three of their last four games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have lost four of their last five night games following a win.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in six of the Marlins’ last seven games.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in six of their last eight night games against the Marlins at Citi Field following a win.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in three of their last four night games.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Mets’ last seven games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Marlins’ last six night games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Marlins’ last five games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in six of the Mets’ last seven night games against NL East opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has hit at least one home run in two of the Mets’ last three games as favorites.
• Freddy Peralta has recorded six strikeouts in three of his last four appearances.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 20 appearances against the Marlins.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Joe Mack has hit a home run in three of the Marlins’ last four night games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Janson Junk has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances against NL opponents.
• Jakob Marsee has recorded a hit in each of the Marlins’ last six road games against NL East opponents.
• Janson Junk has recorded four or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (138) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank T29th in the league for doubles this season (135).
• The Mets rank T29th in the league for doubles this season (135).
• The Marlins rank T1st in the league for triples this season (25).
• The Marlins rank T1st in the league for triples this season (25).

Mets vs Marlins Prediction

Junk isn’t a pitcher I’m excited to back, especially with a 6.31 ERA and .298 batting average allowed on the road. However, let’s not act like Peralta is lighting the world on fire. Peralta has a 4.99 ERA and 1.48 WHIP on the season, and he’s allowed 30 hits and 17 earned runs in his last 22.1 innings. The Marlins are a scrappy bunch that’s fighting for their playoff lives while the Mets continue to underachieve. You shouldn’t be backing the Mets in the favorite role. At all. Give me the Marlins and the more favorable price.