Mets vs Marlins Prediction 8/1/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Marlins prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, August 1st at Citi Field in Queens, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 47-64 this year after they split the first two games in this series by scores of 4-2 and 2-5. In game two, New York cut the deficit to 5-2 in the seventh inning, but couldn’t get any closer in the loss. The Mets recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Lindor, who went 2-3 with one home run and one RBI. Senga allowed two hits and three earned runs over 4.0 innings for the loss, while Curry threw five relief innings. Prior to this series, New York won two out of three against the Braves, but lost two out of three against the Dodgers before that. 

This season, New York has a 4.11 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .237 opponent batting average, while they have scored 455 runs with a .233 batting average and a .304 on base percentage. Juan Soto (IL) has led the Mets with 21 home runs and 52 RBIs, while Bo Bichette has added 10 home runs and 53 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Zac Thornton, who is 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP over 29.2 innings pitched this year. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 56-55 this season after they won game two by a score of 5-2 last night. Miami scored four runs in the fifth inning and added one more in the sixth in the win. The Marlins recorded eight hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Mack, who went 2-4 with two RBIs. Junk allowed three hits and zero earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Fairbanks got the save. Prior to this series, Miami swept the Phillies in three games, but lost all three against the Padres before that. 

This season, Miami has a 4.05 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .231 opponent batting average, while they have scored 488 runs with a .250 batting average and a .326 on base percentage. Liam Hicks has led the Marlins with 14 home runs and 60 RBIs, while Otto Lopez has added nine home runs and 50 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Tyler Phillips, who is 2-5 with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 84.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won 13 of their last 14 home games against the Marlins following a loss.
• The Marlins have lost 12 of their last 13 road games against the Mets following a win.
• The Mets have covered the run line each of their last eight home games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 11 road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won four of their last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have lost eight of their last nine Saturday games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last 12 day games following a win.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six day games against the Marlins following a loss.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six Saturday games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven Saturday games.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Mets’ last eight games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Marlins’ last four road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Marlins’ last six games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Mets’ last four games.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has hit at least one home run in three of the Mets’ last four games as favorites.
• Zach Thornton has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his three previous home appearances.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 21 appearances against the Marlins.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in each of the Marlins’ last three road games against NL East opponents.
• Tyler Phillips has recorded four or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances against NL East opponents.
• Jakob Marsee has recorded a hit in each of the Marlins’ last seven road games against NL East opponents.

Mets vs Marlins Prediction 

Miami bounced back from their game one loss with a win on Friday and they have won four of their last five games. The Marlins are 22-32 on the road this year, while the Mets are 25-32 at home. New York has won three of their last five games, but they have scored three runs or fewer in three of their last four. The Mets are starting Thornton, who has allowed four earned runs in his last 25.1 innings, while Phillips has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts. Take the Mets with Thornton on the mound.