Mets vs Marlins Prediction 8/31/25 MLB Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Marlins prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, August 31st at Citi Field in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 73-63 this year after they lost two of the first three games in this series by scores of 4-7, 19-9, and 8-11. In their game three loss, New York tied the game at eight in the sixth inning, but didn’t score anymore runs in the loss. The Mets recorded 12 hits in the game and they were led by Soto and Vientos, who both had three RBIs in the loss. New York started Peterson, who allowed eight hits and eight earned runs over 2.0 innings, while Rogers picked up the loss in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Mets won all three against the Phillies and two out of three against the Braves. New York has won six of their last nine games and they are currently second in the NL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.85 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .242 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 649 runs with a .251 batting average and a .329 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with 31 home runs and 110 RBIs, while Juan Soto has added 35 home runs and 84 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Kodai Senga, who is 7-5 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 108.2 innings pitched this year. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 64-72 this season after they won game three by a score of 11-8 on Saturday afternoon. Miami jumped out to a 5-0 lead in the first and an 8-2 lead in the third, but they needed three late runs to seal the win. The Marlins recorded 13 hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Norby and Wiemer, who both had three RBIs in the win. Miami started Cabrera, who allowed eight hits and five earned runs over 4.0 innings, while Gibson allowed two earned runs in relief. 

Prior to this series, the Marlins lost two out of three against the Braves and two out of three against the Blue Jays. Miami has lost three of their last five games and they are currently third in the NL East standings. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.70 ERA with a 1.32 WHIP and a .250 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 594 runs with a .251 batting average and a .315 on base percentage this season. Kyle Stowers has led Miami with 25 home runs and 73 RBIs, while Agustin Ramirez has added 18 home runs and 58 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Sandy Alcantara, who is 7-11 with a 5.87 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP over 141.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Mets will beat the Marlins

• The Mets have won each of their last 12 home games against the Marlins following a loss.
• The Marlins have lost each of their last 11 games at Citi Field following a win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last six home games against the Marlins following a loss.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games following a win.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight day games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five road day games.

Why the Marlins will beat the Mets

• The Mets have lost nine of their last 11 games as home favorites after playing the previous day.
• The underdogs have won 12 of the Mets’ last 15 games at Citi Field.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line each of their last seven day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in 13 of their last 14 day games against NL East opponents following a road win.
• The Marlins have won the first inning in three of their last four day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Marlins’ last eight games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Mets’ last six games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Mets’ last six day games against National League opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Kodai Senga has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his five previous appearances with the Mets as favorites against the Marlins.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances against the Marlins.
• Kodai Senga has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Juan Soto ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.395) this season.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Sandy Alcantara has recorded five or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of his eight previous road appearances against the Mets after playing the previous day.
• Kyle Stowers has hit a home run in three of his last seven appearances in day games against NL teams that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank T1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (121).
• The Mets rank 4th in the league for walks this season (481).
• The Marlins rank 27th in the league for home runs this season (130).
• The Marlins rank 4th in the league for triples this season (26).

Mets vs Marlins Prediction 

These two teams have played three very high scoring games to start this series and they have put on a great show for the fans. The Mets are 45-26 at home this season, while the Marlins are 33-35 on the road. Miami continues to struggle with their pitching staff this year, but they are starting Alcantara, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight outings. New York is going with Senga, who has allowed 3, 4, 2, 1, and 4 earned runs in his last five. We continue to cash with the over in this series and I am going right back to it here.