Mets vs Nationals Prediction 5/21/26 MLB Picks Today

In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Nationals Prediction for this MLB matchup on Thursday, May 21^st in the fourth game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Washington Nationals Preview

The Washington Nationals have a 25-25 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL East. They have a 10-15 home record and are coming off a 8-4 win against the Mets. They will face the Braves and the Guardians next.

The Nationals have a .246 batting average this season, .326 OBP and .418 Slugging percentage. Washington’s pitching staff has a 5.04 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. CJ Abrams is the team’s best hitter with a .300 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 42. James Wood adds a team-high 13 home runs.

Cade Cavalli (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals, and he has a 2-2 record, 4.05 ERA and 1.54 WHIP.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have a 21-28 record this season and are sitting in the fifth place of the NL East. They have a 10-15 away record and are coming off a 8-4 loss against the Nationals. They will face the Marlins and the Reds next.

The Mets have a .232 batting average this season, .297 OBP and .361 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Carson Benge is the team’s best hitter with a .264 batting average. Bo Bichette leads the team in RBI with 25, while Juan Soto adds a team-high 9 home runs.

David Peterson (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 2-4 record, 5.40 ERA and 1.57 WHIP.

New York Mets @ Washington Nationals Betting Trends: May 21, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Cade Cavalli      Record this season: 2-2      ERA: 4.05
• Home Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Mets: 1-0

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last eight day games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Nationals have won four of their last five games as underdogs against the Mets.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 day games against NL East opponents.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last five day games against NL East opponents following a win.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games as favorites.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five road games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: David Peterson      Record this season: 2-4      ERA: 5.40
• Road Record: 1-2
• Last 5 against Nationals: 3-1

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Nationals have lost seven of their last eight home games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Mets have won eight of their last 10 day games against the Nationals following a road loss.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as home underdogs following a win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last nine day games against the Nationals following a road loss.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in three of their last four day games against the Nationals at Nationals Park.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against the Nationals at Nationals Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Nationals’ last six games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Mets’ last nine day games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last nine day games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Nationals’ last seven home games against NL East opponents.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• Jacob Young has hit a home run in each of the Nationals’ last two day games.
• Luis Garcia has recorded two or more hits in four of his last five appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Nasim Nunez ranks 1st in the league in Steals (21) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Juan Soto has hit at least one home run in each of the Mets’ last two games.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances against former teams.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Nationals rank 1st in the league for runs scored this season (279).
• The Nationals rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (101).
• The Mets rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.361).
• The Mets rank T28th in the league for doubles this season (67).

Mets vs Nationals Prediction

The Nationals are 8-3 in their last 11 meetings against the Mets and are 4-1 their last 5 meetings in Washington.

In this Mets vs Nationals Prediction, the Mets are coming as -115 road favorites. I don’t trust either pitcher in this matchup as they both have a combined 9.45 ERA and in the previous game this season where they both started, there were 16 total runs scored. All three games in this series have been extremely high-scoring ones, with 23, 15 and 12 total runs and the last five meetings between those two teams this season went over the total. The weather is bad, but I will still go over the low number of 8 in this one.